US diplomat predicts rapid change in Cuba
Thu Dec 15, 2005 12:08 PM ET
By Anthony Boadle
HAVANA (Reuters) - Washington's new top diplomat in Havana sees mounting frustration and anger in Cuba and is preparing for rapid change on the communist-run island, but he cannot predict when -- or how -- that will happen.
U.S. Interests Section chief Michael Parmly believes Cubans have had their fill of President Fidel Castro's rule and will not wait for his demise to see change.
From his experience as a U.S. diplomat in Romania, where communist leader Nicolae Ceausescu was ousted in street protests, Parmly envisions revolt possibly spreading like wildfire in the streets and a dictator's authority crumbling when he is shouted at in the main square.
"You cannot predict these things, but you do try to prepare for them when you are pretty sure they are coming and I am pretty sure it is coming," Parmly said in an interview on Wednesday.
"I wouldn't try to mark a date on the calendar, but I see an awful lot of signs of frustration, even anger. When the rubber band snaps is up to the Cuban people," he said.
He pointed to Serbia as another example of people taking to the streets to change a regime against predictions. "Call me a foolish optimist. I think I have enough concrete data to be convinced that is the way it is going to play out," he said.
Parmly, 54, who worked to build democracy in postwar Bosnia and Afghanistan, arrived three months ago as head of the U.S. mission in Havana, the person Cuban authorities love to hate.
He succeeded James Cason, now U.S. ambassador to Paraguay, who was ridiculed in cartoons on Cuban television as "Mr. Transition" for his blunt efforts to speed political change.
President Fidel Castro called Cason a "bully with diplomatic immunity" and accused him of violating the rules of diplomacy by openly consorting with his opponents.
Parmly got off to a better start in his relations with Cuban authorities by offering to send a U.S. disaster assessment team to help Cuba deal with massive flooding caused by Hurricane Wilma in Havana in October.
While his style may be different, Parmly said U.S. policy remains the same: to promote democratic change and human rights after four decades of one-party rule under Castro.
"NAZI METHODS"
Meeting with dissidents at his residence on Saturday, Parmly denounced the government for intimidating opponents by sending angry mobs to demonstrate outside their homes, a "disgusting" practice that he said recalled Nazi brown shirts and the Ku Klux Klan.
Parmly said Cuba's budding pro-democracy movement has not been stalled by a severe crackdown launched by Castro in March 2003, which landed dozens of dissidents in prison with sentences of up to 28 years.
"The courage with which more and more people continue to speak out despite strong pressure from the regime tells me that the change is occurring," he said.
Hardships faced by Cubans since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which deprived Cuba of its international benefactor, have led to mounting discontent and thousands emigrating each year, with visas or taking to the sea in small boats.
U.S. President George W. Bush has tightened travel and financial restrictions and set up a Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba which last year unveiled a plan to help the country of 11 million once Castro has gone.
The 79-year-old Cuban leader has no plans to retire and continues to give long speeches in which he laughs off reports of his deteriorating health. His younger brother Raul Castro, head of the Armed forces and number two in Cuba's political hierarchy, is his designated successor.
When change comes to Cuba, Parmly said it would be a "messy" process as different people try to assert themselves and gain legitimacy. But he warned that any transition government that did not have the support of the majority of Cubans would not be recognized by the United States.
"If it is another illegitimate government, we are going to have a hard time dealing with it," he said.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2005-12-15T170753Z_01_SIB561626_RTRUKOC_0_US-CUBA-USA.xml
Thu Dec 15, 2005 12:08 PM ET
By Anthony Boadle
HAVANA (Reuters) - Washington's new top diplomat in Havana sees mounting frustration and anger in Cuba and is preparing for rapid change on the communist-run island, but he cannot predict when -- or how -- that will happen.
U.S. Interests Section chief Michael Parmly believes Cubans have had their fill of President Fidel Castro's rule and will not wait for his demise to see change.
From his experience as a U.S. diplomat in Romania, where communist leader Nicolae Ceausescu was ousted in street protests, Parmly envisions revolt possibly spreading like wildfire in the streets and a dictator's authority crumbling when he is shouted at in the main square.
"You cannot predict these things, but you do try to prepare for them when you are pretty sure they are coming and I am pretty sure it is coming," Parmly said in an interview on Wednesday.
"I wouldn't try to mark a date on the calendar, but I see an awful lot of signs of frustration, even anger. When the rubber band snaps is up to the Cuban people," he said.
He pointed to Serbia as another example of people taking to the streets to change a regime against predictions. "Call me a foolish optimist. I think I have enough concrete data to be convinced that is the way it is going to play out," he said.
Parmly, 54, who worked to build democracy in postwar Bosnia and Afghanistan, arrived three months ago as head of the U.S. mission in Havana, the person Cuban authorities love to hate.
He succeeded James Cason, now U.S. ambassador to Paraguay, who was ridiculed in cartoons on Cuban television as "Mr. Transition" for his blunt efforts to speed political change.
President Fidel Castro called Cason a "bully with diplomatic immunity" and accused him of violating the rules of diplomacy by openly consorting with his opponents.
Parmly got off to a better start in his relations with Cuban authorities by offering to send a U.S. disaster assessment team to help Cuba deal with massive flooding caused by Hurricane Wilma in Havana in October.
While his style may be different, Parmly said U.S. policy remains the same: to promote democratic change and human rights after four decades of one-party rule under Castro.
"NAZI METHODS"
Meeting with dissidents at his residence on Saturday, Parmly denounced the government for intimidating opponents by sending angry mobs to demonstrate outside their homes, a "disgusting" practice that he said recalled Nazi brown shirts and the Ku Klux Klan.
Parmly said Cuba's budding pro-democracy movement has not been stalled by a severe crackdown launched by Castro in March 2003, which landed dozens of dissidents in prison with sentences of up to 28 years.
"The courage with which more and more people continue to speak out despite strong pressure from the regime tells me that the change is occurring," he said.
Hardships faced by Cubans since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which deprived Cuba of its international benefactor, have led to mounting discontent and thousands emigrating each year, with visas or taking to the sea in small boats.
U.S. President George W. Bush has tightened travel and financial restrictions and set up a Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba which last year unveiled a plan to help the country of 11 million once Castro has gone.
The 79-year-old Cuban leader has no plans to retire and continues to give long speeches in which he laughs off reports of his deteriorating health. His younger brother Raul Castro, head of the Armed forces and number two in Cuba's political hierarchy, is his designated successor.
When change comes to Cuba, Parmly said it would be a "messy" process as different people try to assert themselves and gain legitimacy. But he warned that any transition government that did not have the support of the majority of Cubans would not be recognized by the United States.
"If it is another illegitimate government, we are going to have a hard time dealing with it," he said.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2005-12-15T170753Z_01_SIB561626_RTRUKOC_0_US-CUBA-USA.xml
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