By Laura Wides-Muñoz | The Associated Press
1:49 PM EDT, September 7, 2007
IAMI - For nearly a decade, Republican presidential candidates have
counted on Florida's Cuban-American community to win the state and, with
it, the presidency.
This year's hopefuls are again making the rounds in Little Havana and on
Miami's Spanish-language radio, mixing criticism of Fidel Castro's Cuban
regime with scathing comments about Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
But this once fail-safe plan has become more risky as Florida's
increasingly diverse Hispanic community no longer guarantees a
monolithic vote. Of the state's estimated 3 million Hispanics, Cubans
represent a third. Puerto Ricans and Mexicans, more traditionally
Democratic voters, make up another third, and Central and South
Americans round out the group.
Meanwhile, Democrats, who after former President Clinton all but ceded
the Cuban-American vote, are courting the community with renewed vigor
while also using Florida as a platform to reach out to Hispanics nationwide.
The eight Democratic candidates will participate in a live forum Sunday
at the University of Miami sponsored by the Spanish-language Univision
Network. The televised forum, with the candidates' answers translated
simultaneously from English to Spanish, is aimed at the nation's more
than 41 million Hispanics, underscoring the candidates' recognition of
this demographic shift.
On the Republican side, only John McCain agreed to attend Univision's
now-canceled GOP forum. His rivals cited scheduling conflicts, though
Univision executives say they are in talks with the candidates to
reschedule the event.
The Univision forum is the third nationally televised Hispanic event in
Florida in the last six months that the top Democratic candidates have
attended, and the third that major Republican candidates have skipped.
Instead, Republicans are focused on their core Florida constituencies --
religious conservatives, retired and active military members and Miami
Cubans. They haven't focused as much on Orlando's Puerto Ricans, the
state's Mexican-Americans or other Hispanics.
That makes sense for now, said Dario Moreno, a political science
professor at Florida International University, but will likely change
for the general election. Among likely Hispanic voters, Republicans
still outnumber Democrats by 10 percent in Florida, but the Democrats'
numbers are rising and the GOP's remain flat.
``You have to look at two different strategies. One is the primary, and
as far as the Republicans, it's really concentrated in Miami, because
that's where the majority of (Hispanic) Republican primary voters are,''
Moreno said.
Rudy Giuliani has sought support among state Republican leaders and in
areas such as the heavily Cuban-American Miami suburb of Hialeah.
Mitt Romney also has made repeated visits to Little Havana, including
the requisite stop at Versailles restaurant, where Cuban-American
leaders have long closed deals over sweet espresso and ham-filled croquetas.
He also has emphasized his broader Latin-American policy credentials,
including trips to the region when he was a venture capitalist, in an
effort to reach out to other voters.
Giuliani, whose law firm once represented a subsidiary of Venezuela's
national petroleum company, and Romney also have criticized the links
between Venezuela's Chavez and Cuba's Castro.
That argument resonates both with Cuban exiles and Florida's burgeoning
and well-heeled Venezuelan-American community.
Still, it may not play as well with the broader Hispanic community,
which is more concerned about mainstream issues such as the Iraq war,
the economy and affordable housing _ as well as Cuban-Americans
frustrated by a decades-old U.S.-Cuban policies that have yielded few
results.
``They're still delivering a message to segmented sectors of the
electorate. When you go on Univision, you are addressing the entire
community, from New York to California,'' Moreno said. ``You're not just
addressing the Venezuelan leaders or the Colombian leaders.''
And then there is immigration.
All the Republican candidates but McCain opposed a bill that would have
provided a path to legalization for the nation's nearly 12 million
illegal immigrants, many of them Hispanic.
Yet Democrats still face their own hurdles. The Democratic National
Committee recently banned the presidential candidates from campaigning
here to punish Florida for leapfrogging its primary to Jan. 29.
Until then, the leading Democratic hopefuls had been trying to woo the
state's Hispanics -- in particular, the growing number of more moderate
Cuban-Americans.
In June, Hillary Clinton struck out at then-undeclared candidate Fred
Thompson when he suggested Cuban rafters could be carrying suitcase
bombs. And she struck back equally hard when fellow Democratic candidate
Barack Obama said he would be willing to meet with Cuban leaders in his
first year of office.
Obama, meanwhile, promised to repeal current regulation limiting
Cuban-Americans from visiting relatives on the communist island more
than once every three years _ an effort to set himself apart from
Clinton and the Republican candidates.
``Republicans can't count on their old vote,'' Moreno said, but ``the
Democrats may lose an opportunity by not being able to campaign in
Florida.''
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/cuba/sfl-0907cubanvote,0,6176705.story
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