Originally published April 24, 2007
Planners, analysts consider a post-Castro Cuba
By Paige St. John
TALLAHASSEE -- Florida lawmakers joined emergency planners and policy
wonks Tuesday in contemplating what the eventual death of Fidel Castro
would mean to Florida.
Analysts at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies say federal agencies currently estimate Castro's
death will bring from 8,000 to 10,000 Cuban refugees to this country,
primarily to South Florida.
Their own estimates are much higher -- as many as 500,000 individuals
would seek economic opportunity in the United States if Castro's
successor fails to make good on promises for a better life.
"This could be a humanitarian crisis," warns Andy Gomez, senior fellow
at the Cuban studies institute.
But plans to offset that migration center on helping Cuba help Cubans --
by developing more jobs and a better economy in the communist country.
And that troubled some of the South Florida lawmakers attending
Tuesday's policy briefing.
"How is the U.S. going to give preferential treatment to a country that
does not have democracy?" challenged Rep. Juan Zapata, R-Miami.
The change that comes may not be the one many Cuban-Americans have hoped
for, another speaker warned.
"Many analysts believe the real Cuban change will not happen in Havana,"
said Jorge Pinon, a senior research associate at the institute. "It will
happen in Washington."
Among plans the institute is exploring is the conversion of Cuba's sugar
cane fields into ethanol-producing facilities. Such a transition could
provide 212,000 jobs for Cubans, Pinon said.
Florida's emergency management directors are involved in more short-term
plans, along with local aid groups such as the American Red Cross. They
have been developing mass migration contingency plans since 2004.
http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070424/BREAKINGNEWS/304240002
Planners, analysts consider a post-Castro Cuba
By Paige St. John
TALLAHASSEE -- Florida lawmakers joined emergency planners and policy
wonks Tuesday in contemplating what the eventual death of Fidel Castro
would mean to Florida.
Analysts at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies say federal agencies currently estimate Castro's
death will bring from 8,000 to 10,000 Cuban refugees to this country,
primarily to South Florida.
Their own estimates are much higher -- as many as 500,000 individuals
would seek economic opportunity in the United States if Castro's
successor fails to make good on promises for a better life.
"This could be a humanitarian crisis," warns Andy Gomez, senior fellow
at the Cuban studies institute.
But plans to offset that migration center on helping Cuba help Cubans --
by developing more jobs and a better economy in the communist country.
And that troubled some of the South Florida lawmakers attending
Tuesday's policy briefing.
"How is the U.S. going to give preferential treatment to a country that
does not have democracy?" challenged Rep. Juan Zapata, R-Miami.
The change that comes may not be the one many Cuban-Americans have hoped
for, another speaker warned.
"Many analysts believe the real Cuban change will not happen in Havana,"
said Jorge Pinon, a senior research associate at the institute. "It will
happen in Washington."
Among plans the institute is exploring is the conversion of Cuba's sugar
cane fields into ethanol-producing facilities. Such a transition could
provide 212,000 jobs for Cubans, Pinon said.
Florida's emergency management directors are involved in more short-term
plans, along with local aid groups such as the American Red Cross. They
have been developing mass migration contingency plans since 2004.
http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070424/BREAKINGNEWS/304240002
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