THE NEW ADMINISTRATION
Cuba policy under Obama predicted to be more open
Once in office, President-elect Barack Obama is likely to do more on
Cuba policy than lifting the travel ban on Cubans visiting the island,
experts say.
BY LIZA GROSS
lgross@MiamiHerald.com
President-elect Barack Obama plans to score a few ''easy wins'' on Cuba
after he takes office, moving further on Cuba issues than he promised
during the campaign, say Cuba observers.
Obama committed during the campaign to allow Cuban Americans to send
remittances without restrictions and to travel to the island as often as
they like to visit relatives.
His transition team declined to elaborate on Cuba strategy, saying Obama
has already addressed it.
But a senior Republican aide in Washington, who recently returned from
Cuba, said there are some areas where Obama may go beyond his campaign
pledges.
The Obama administration will have a much more relaxed approach to
issuing visas to non-Cubans, making travel easier in both directions for
academics, artists, scientists and students, said the aide, who asked
not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak on the record.
He added there will probably be some changes in the regulations on
agricultural sales to facilitate payment for merchandise, and that, in
general, the new administration will convey the message of more openness
in exchanges and discussions with Havana and Latin America.
''Most likely there will not be an end to the embargo,'' the aide said.
``But very likely there will be more than what was articulated.''
Peter Hakim, president of the Washington-based Inter American Dialogue,
said Obama will focus on ''easy wins'' to test the waters.
''He will do a few things he can't avoid, like rolling back
restrictions. This is the easiest, doesn't cost him and has
projection,'' Hakim said.
PRESSURE TO DO MORE
''I don't think he is going to stop there. Once he's done that, there's
going to be pressure'' for more action, he added.
Initial steps could include statements on jailed Cuban dissidents,
allowing exchanges like ''letting Little League baseball teams play in
Cuba'' and staying out of the way of any Cuba-related initiatives from
international organizations like the Inter American Development Bank or
the Organization of American States, Hakim said.
After that, he added, ``Cuba reaction and Miami reaction will shape how
the next steps go.''
Under a Bush administration policy, Cuban Americans can now send up to
$300 in cash every three months and are allowed to visit the island once
every three years, although they can send gift packages of food,
medicine and other items. Bush also tightened the restrictions on visits
by academics, students and religious groups. In addition, Americans with
no family in Cuba generally cannot visit the island, and it's unclear
whether the announced easing of travel restrictions will apply to them.
Beyond these reversals, Obama has said little on other aspects of
relations with Cuba.
In a speech in Miami in May 2008, he said he would maintain the
47-year-old embargo because it provides the United States with the
leverage to force Cuba ''to take significant steps towards democracy,''
although as senator he took a different position.
But elected officials and Cuban exile leaders do not see the Obama
administration engaging in dramatic changes, while in South Florida some
Cuban Americans anxiously hope for significantly closer relations
between the two countries.
''The only thing he will do is what he said he will do: change the
policy back to what it was before the restrictions placed by the Bush
administration,'' said Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. ``Any other policy
change, we'll have to wait and see. If anything.''
U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros Lehtinen, R-Miami, agreed.
''President Obama will rapidly put into place the regulations regarding
Cuban travel to the island,'' she said. ``He will change a few of the
recent restrictions. In the near future, I don't foresee major changes.''
Dr. Susan Purcell, director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the
University of Miami, predicts policy continuity under Obama.
''It looks like Obama is going to adopt some Bush policies. They made it
clear the embargo will stay,'' she said. ``They are not abandoning
setting pre-conditions to the lifting of the embargo.''
Still, she cautions that Fidel Castro's health will severely impact the
evolution of any Cuba policy.
Exile Cuban leader Ernesto Díaz of Alpha 66 said Obama must continue
Bush's current stand on Cuba because it's ``the logical course.''
''I don't expect major changes. Obama will act as is logical, in line
with U.S. interests, and the government of Cuba is not interested in
resolving differences with the government of the United States,'' he said.
The complexity of the Cuba issue and the current domestic and foreign
crises are likely to push the U.S. Cuba policy lower down on an Obama
agenda, experts said.
`COMPLICATED ISSUE'
''Nothing beyond travel and remittances will happen in the first two
years of the administration,'' Guarioné Diaz, president of the
Miami-based Cuban National Council, said.
``I hope that he is aware that Cuba is a complicated issue, so he will
have to get a feel for what his options are.''
Ten U.S. presidents have tried and failed to tackle the issue of the
embargo, and Obama may be reluctant to engage in what can fast become a
political quagmire, Cuba watchers said.
''I hope President-elect Barack Obama keeps his word not to grant any
further unilateral concessions to the dictatorship,'' said Rep. Lincoln
Diaz-Balart, R-Miami. ``I cannot predict his future actions, but in
Congress the cause of a democratic Cuba enjoys significant bipartisan
strength.''
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