Cuba after Castro

Cuba after Castro
Post staff report

Associated Press
Fidel Castro, shown in this 2004 photo, has held power for nearly a half
a century. Citizens of Cuba are pondering what will happen should he
surrender power.

Northern Kentucky University professor Adalberto Pinelo left his native
Cuba 45 years ago and says people have repeatedly asked him the same
question over the years.

"What's going to happen in Cuba when Castro dies?" he said. "I think we
are about to find out."

The nebulous news out of communist Cuba this week was that Fidel
Castro's 47-year suppressive reign could be nearing an end.

The 79-year-old Castro reportedly was so ill after surgery that he
temporarily ceded control to his brother, Raul, 75. Reports later in the
week, however, indicated that Castro could be recovering. "It's sort of
hard to tell what's going on," said Pinelo. "The Cuban government is
extremely paranoid.

"They could be rehearsing steps for Castro's eventual death or he could
be recovering or he may have already died, and they're trying to get the
population accustomed to the thought that he might be done.

"The Cuban community in Miami is very much sold on the idea that he's
dead. But that just might be wishful thinking on their part. It may have
some credence, though, because we haven't had any appearances by Castro
and the government statements seem rather formulaic. There's no
substantive information."

Pinelo, 62, who teaches political science at NKU and lives in Wilder,
said he doesn't think "much will happen immediately" after Castro's death.

"Raul is scheduled to take over, but he doesn't have much charisma and
isn't much of a leader," Pinelo said. "A National Assembly leader might
step forward and assume a larger role.

"The system there is well-set, well-greased, at least for some time,
unless you get a very active Cuban community or the United States
decides to pull off some kind of caper in Cuba."

Pinelo doubts the U.S. will make any dramatic moves in Cuba.

"The odds are not particularly high, given the fact that we're so caught
up with the Middle East," he said. "Castro is not without friends in the
area, so I think Cuba will continue to be communist for some time.
Whether Cuba can carry on indefinitely without Castro is subject to
speculation."

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