A critical moment for the future of Cuba

Posted on Thu, Aug. 03, 2006

FROM CASTRO TO CASTRO
A critical moment for the future of Cuba
By MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE
mps_opinion@comcast.net

Fidel Castro is out of sight, and we (sort of) know why. Rumors of his
passing swirled a month ago but, then, he took a two-day trip to
Argentina and returned home to mark the 53rd anniversary of the assault
on Moncada barracks, the event that started him on the road to power. On
Tuesday, a newscaster read a message from Castro saying he's ''stable''
but -- we gather -- gravely ill for, otherwise, wouldn't he have told us
himself?

In retrospect, something must have been wrong for a while. Cuban media
showered unusual attention on Raúl Castro's 75th birthday, drawing a
portrait of a loving family man, steeled in discipline and organization,
all of which is, by all accounts, true. On June 14, Raúl delivered a
speech proclaiming the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) Fidel's true
successor. No one, after all, could possibly fill the Comandante's
shoes. Since April, in fact, Raúl's hand -- always there in PCC affairs
-- has been publicly seen in a series of significant institutional
changes. He knows he needs more than his generals to govern Cuba.

Reforming the economy

Fidel's proclamation of the temporary transfer of power actually
revealed a lot about how he has wielded power, extraordinary and
unchecked. Raúl assumes his charges as party leader, commander in chief
of the armed forces and president of Cuba; four other men have been
assigned his duties in the health, education and energy programs; three
more are now handling the transfer of funds -- which he had personally
overseen -- to these key programs. No one should ever again be deluded
into thinking that the elder Castro was no longer micro-managing.

Raúl was right: His brother's shoes are hard to fill. In truth, Fidel
fills them only in a physical sense. His larger-than-life persona
yielded him enormous political benefits, swaying Cuban and world public
opinion for a long time. Some still believe, but few -- least of all,
those around him -- think that it is normal for a man to hold power for
47 years with only his mortality as sunset. Castro simply couldn't live
by the insight he expressed to Lee Lockwood in 1965: ''All of us ought
to retire relatively young.'' Cuba has suffered dearly for it but so
will his legacy. History may not, after all, absolve him.

Of interest in the proclamation as well is the absence of the economy.
Fidel has never cared about the lives of ordinary Cubans on their own
terms, which means -- for starters -- shoes for the kids, a functioning
transportation system, decent housing and rice, beans, maybe a little
pork for dinner. An old joke asks: What are the revolution's successes?
Health, education, sports. What are its failures? Breakfast, lunch and
dinner. Raúl may well heed the joke. Fortunately, he doesn't have
charisma and needs to get Cubans to listen -- most have turned off
politics -- by reforming the economy.

There was, of course, the obligatory mention of the United States. On
July 6, the Bush administration issued the second report on assistance
to a free Cuba. While much better in tone than the first, it still
manifests a compulsive need to say something about every aspect of
Cuba's transition and again fails to acknowledge the first-rate
professionals there who know better than any of us what Cuba's problems
are. I also couldn't help but cringe at the thought of the
administration which gave us Iraq advising a democratic Cuba on
anything. Will Washington ever learn that a little distance might go a
long way?

Listen and compromise

I'm fairly certain that July 31, when we learned of the temporary
transfer of power, will mark a critical moment in Cuban history. No one
knows when the end will come but it is on the way. I'm not too concerned
about the succession: It will be a fact of life for a while which could
lead to a transition. To get there, we should expect the unexpected and
make alliances accordingly. We must dialogue, listen and compromise to
attain what is possible while never losing sight of a democratic Cuba.
Here's hoping that we can summon the wisdom and generosity that will
allow us all to heal in freedom.

Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the
Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor at Florida
International University.

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