Published on Friday, January 16, 2009 Email To Friend Print Version
By Jeff Franks
HAVANA, Cuba (Reuters): Fidel Castro's absence from the 50th anniversary
of the Cuban revolution and a prolonged halt to his output of newspaper
columns have raised concerns that the health of the 82-year-old former
leader may be declining.
The Cuban government has said nothing about his condition, but
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a close Castro ally, appeared to
signal a problem when he spoke about him in elegiac terms on Sunday on
his weekly radio and television show.
Former Cuban President Fidel Castro. AFP PHOTO
The Fidel Castro who "walked the streets and towns in his uniform and
hugging the people, will not return. That will remain in memory," Chavez
said.
Castro has been ailing since he underwent surgery for an undisclosed
intestinal ailment 2 1/2 years ago that forced him to cede power to his
younger brother, Raul Castro, and go into semi-seclusion.
Since then, he has been seen only in occasional videos and photos, but
has maintained a public profile by writing columns for state-run media.
He was producing an average of nine columns a month in 2008, but he has
not published a new one since Dec. 15.
Many observers thought he might appear live or on television for the
anniversary of his Jan. 1, 1959, victory over dictator Fulgencio Batista
or the commemoration a week later of his triumphant arrival in Havana.
But he appeared at neither, in what was less a surprise than an
affirmation that he had become a frail old man, said a Cuban office
worker who gave her name only as Marlena.
"I guess he really is falling apart. It will be interesting to see what
happens next," she said.
Castro last appeared in a video in June, when Cuban television aired a
report on his meeting with Chavez in Havana. He looked thin, but active
and in better shape than in earlier appearances.
Since then, Castro has been seen in only two photos that came out in
November. In both, he was standing and shaking hands, but looked less
robust than in the June video.
Cuba experts and diplomats said Castro's absence from the anniversary
events marking the 50 years since he brought communism to Cuba may mean
he is getting worse or simply that the government did not want Cubans to
see a frail version of their once-powerful leader.
"More important than how he might feel physically, he simply does not
look good," said Frank Mora at the National War College in Washington.
"I do not think that he and his cohorts want to project such an image of
the comandante, especially if it's his last."
But concern about appearances, said a Western diplomat in Havana, would
not explain why his steady stream of columns, or "reflections," suddenly
came to a halt two weeks before the Jan. 1 anniversary.
The frequency of the columns, in which Castro opines about current and
past events, had come to be an informal barometer of his health.
Most readers had expected Castro to write about the anniversary, but,
except for a brief note of congratulations to Cubans published on Jan.
1, he said nothing.
"Why didn't he write a reflection about it? This was his moment and he
said nothing. You have to wonder," the diplomat said.
Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, one of a new generation of leftist
leaders in Latin America, came to Cuba last week, but he, too, appeared
to know little about Castro's condition.
"I would love to see him, but I don't know the state of his health,"
Correa said.
Neither he nor Panamanian President Martin Torrijos, who visited Cuba a
few days earlier, spoke with Castro.
Despite the questions, few are prepared to count out the willful Castro,
who outlasted 10 U.S. presidents and five decades of their attempts to
get rid of him.
He appeared to be at death's door after his July 2006 surgery, but
survived and was believed to still have a significant role in the
government now led by Raul Castro, who succeeded him as president in
February.
As recently as Nov. 28, he met with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev
and 10 days before that with Chinese President Hu Jintao, both on
official visits to Cuba.
It would surprise no one, said Dan Erikson at the Inter-American
Dialogue in Washington, if Castro suddenly resurfaces.
"I think the less visible he is indicates declining health, with the
caveat that there is no straight-line trajectory," he said. "If Fidel is
out of sight for a couple of months, it doesn't mean that he won't be on
his feet greeting some foreign dignitary in the future."
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