Thursday, Apr. 17, 2008 By TIM PADGETT
In April of 1959, just a few months after they'd taken control of Cuba,
Fidel Castro and his younger brother Raul met at a Houston hotel for a
showdown. Fidel was touring the U.S. to win support for his revolution;
but Raul, according to the book After Fidel by former CIA analyst Brian
Latell, insisted they ditch the gringos and accelerate plans to make
Cuba a communist island. The argument got so loud and heated in their
suite that aides in adjoining rooms couldn't sleep. The next morning,
however, the brothers emerged as chummy as ever — and went on, of
course, to communize Cuba.
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Almost 50 years later, the Castros appear to be hashing out their
differences in print instead of hotel rooms — and this time it's Fidel
who's arguing from the left. The 81-year-old comandante has made a new
career of sorts as an op-ed scribe since he resigned as Cuba's President
earlier this year because of health problems, leaving Raul to become the
government's new No. 1 two months ago. Since then, Raul, 76, has ordered
a series of small but significant economic reforms, from letting Cubans
own cell phones to allowing farmers to till their own land — ideas that
Fidel doesn't always find communist kosher. In a brief article published
this week in the government mouthpiece Granma, Fidel takes issue with
the idea, posited recently by a Cuban columnist in another official
newspaper, that Raul's changes are progress compared to the more
restrictive and collectivist ways of the past. In the not-so-subtle
style Fidel is known for, the article's headline reads: "Don't make
concessions to enemy ideology."
The essay — which warns Cubans to "meditate hard" on the policy changes
and avoid "shameful concessions" — is the latest step in a strange
sibling dance. Though once a devoted communist accused of ordering the
summary executions of numerous Cuban dissenters in the revolution's
early days, Raul is considerably more pragmatic than the obdurately
ideological Fidel. His encouragement of limited market-oriented policies
like foreign investment in tourism helped see Cuba through its
frightening "special period" after the island's lavish Soviet aid
vanished in the 1990s.
Now that he's in power, Raul is pushing further economic liberalization
and improved ties with the U.S. (Washington has maintained a trade
embargo against Cuba since 1962). But, because he lacks the charisma
that helped keep his brother in power so long, Raul also has to keep the
legendary Fidelista flame at least half lit. Even as he pledged at his
inauguration to make Cuba "more efficient" and to "start removing" its
"excess of prohibitions," he declared Fidel "irreplaceable" and insisted
he would "continue consulting" his bearded brother on policy decisions.
As a result, Fidel's contrary op-eds are part "of an extremely delicate
balance" Raul is pursuing in the early stages of his presidency, or at
least until Fidel dies, says Dan Erikson, senior associate at the
Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C. "Does he disappoint Fidel or
does he disappoint the Cuban people? The reality is that the legitimacy
of his government rests on pleasing Cubans but not straying too far from
Fidel." Analysts like Erikson concede that Raul's reforms, including
permission to let Cubans buy electronics in dollar stores and gain title
to their own homes, are "marginal" so far. But "for ordinary Cubans it's
been a lot of change very quickly," he says. To keep their reform
expectations realistic — and to appease diehard Fidelistas in the
government — Raul has to indulge "Fidel's new habit of undercutting him
at various times," says Erikson.
Fidel's armchair governing also appeals to an important overseas
constituency — Chavistas, the loyalists of left-wing Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez, who reveres Fidel for his socialist purity and
anti-U.S. ferocity. The relationship between Raul and Chavez is cordial
at best; and Chavistas make no secret of their displeasure with Raul's
quasi-capitalist bent. But Raul can't afford to alienate Chavez, who
controls the hemisphere's largest oil reserves — and who each day sends
100,000 barrels of cut-rate crude to Cuba that has helped keep the
island's economy afloat this decade.
Raul is widely expected to announce deeper changes during a speech on
May 1, which is Labor Day for much of the world and a sacred date on the
communist calendar. Since greater agricultural efficiency is regarded as
his priority, some analysts say he might permit foreign investment in
that sector as well. He may also allow Cubans to travel abroad freely
and open the door to wider entrepreneurship in Cuba, letting business
owners hire employees other than immediate family members and set their
own prices.
Even so, Cuban officials are warning people both inside and outside of
Cuba not to expect a free-market economy on the island any time soon.
And while Raul has encouraged debate about Cuba's socialist system, most
analysts agree that he's pursuing a China-style model that opens Cuba's
economy but does not liberalize Havana's stringent politics. Perhaps he
knows that if he attempted the latter, he'd have to read even harsher
op-eds by his brother.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1732103,00.html
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