Will Cuba’s revolutionary return to power?

Will Cuba’s revolutionary return to power?

As Fidel Castro turns 80, his nation may also be hitting a turning point
ANALYSIS
By Andrea Mitchell
Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent
NBC News

Updated: 7:29 a.m. ET Aug. 11, 2006

WASHINGTON — Short of a medical miracle, Fidel Castro will likely
celebrate his 80th birthday this Sunday in seclusion, recuperating from
what his government has described as stomach surgery.

His regime has moved quickly to minimize the impact of his absence from
Cuba's stage, and rumors of stomach cancer have been forcefully denied.

There has been minimal disruption since the government announced a
"temporary" turnover of power to his (marginally) younger brother,
75-year-old Raul.

Is Fidel really recuperating rapidly, as Cuba's government says?

Will the revolutionary return?
There is no independent way to verify that claim. No outside reporters
have been permitted into the country since the aging leader's illness
was announced last week. Castro has not been seen publicly. No
interviews have been granted.

The revolutionary leader is surely receiving excellent medical care (he
once gave me a personal tour of Havana's Medical School to show off
their progress). But at his age, recovery from major stomach surgery —
if that is indeed what he experienced — can be complicated.

Despite some anecdotal uneasiness among his followers, so far, there has
been broad acceptance of his absence from government. Could this change
of the hand-off become permanent? And how would the country be different
if Raul were the real, rather than the acting, president?

What kind of leader would Raul be?
Given his age, in any case, Raul would likely be a transitional figure.
He is regarded as a good manager and in this interim period, apparently
prefers to rule as part of a collective, backed up by a trio of
prominent leaders at least two decades younger.

Longtime observers suggest that with real power, Raul might be more
flexible than his older brother about economic reform: it was Raul in
the post-Soviet 1990s who opened Cuba up to foreign investment and
tourism. At the time, Havana was badly in need of dollars to replace
Moscow's subsidies.

But now, because of the patronage of Cuba's oil-rich ally, Hugo Chavez
of Venezuela, getting the economics "right" is less critical for whoever
is running Cuba. Despite energy shortages and the continuing U.S.
embargo, Cubans appear to have adequate food and have been pace-setters
in Latin America for social services, such as medical care and education.

‘Tough little character’
Raul has long been tagged with the reputation of being ruthless. This is
partly because in 1959, during the revolution, he was his brother's
enforcer and occasional executioner. More recently, as the head of
Cuba's military, he sent very different signals during meetings with
retired U.S. military officers.

Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a lecturer at West Point and NBC
military analyst, spent seven hours a few years ago with both Castro
brothers. McCaffrey, traveling with an American think tank, was in
Havana to send a post-9/11 message: Don't even THINK about harboring
terrorists 90 miles off the coast of the U.S.

McCaffrey told NBC News that during a seven-hour meeting, "Ninety-five
percent of the conversation was dominated by Fidel, four percent by Raul."

“I sort of liked him. He's sort of a tough little character,” McCaffrey
said about Raul. “He struck me as much more engaged. Fidel was
obsessive, was a little delusional, couldn’t stop monologues and
harangues. Raul is far more thoughtful — wanted to hear war stories
about Desert Storm, sort of a likable guy.”

That said, Raul is still the chief political enforcer in what McCaffrey
described as a "communist thugocracy."

U.S. adjusts
As Cuba adjusts to whether this is a temporary or more permanent
transition, so have Castro's arch-enemies in Washington. The Bush
administration is already planning to make it easier for the
approximately 3,500 Cubans a year who want to rejoin families in the
United States to emigrate rapidly.

Currently, the wait can be as long as a dozen years. Any change in the
carefully calibrated migration agreements will be viewed with suspicion
in Havana.

For now, the future of Cuba's leader remains a mystery, known only to
his immediate family and a small group of trusted government officials.

The fact that the health of the world's longest-serving head of
government —and the hemisphere's last surviving Communist leaders — can
be so obscured from public view reinforces the absolute control he and
his tight circle exert on the flow of information from the island.

Fidel Castro may be 80, but his condition is officially a state secret.
Andrea Mitchell is NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent. Over
the years, she has interviewed Fidel Castro on- and off-camera at least
a dozen times.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14273323/