Where The Next Castro May Take Cuba

Where The Next Castro May Take Cuba
Some Say Raúl Could Open Up Cuban Economy And Ease Hostility With U.S.

MEXICO CITY, Aug. 3, 2006

Quote

"(Raul) does not occupy the same place in the historiography of the
Cuban Revolution as his brother."
Marc Falcoff, author

(Christian Science Monitor) This article was written by Sara Miller Llana.

Where Fidel Castro is known as the publicly charismatic visionary, his
younger brother Raúl is the technician, the talent scout, the consummate
manager.

Fidel sees China's gradual shift toward free-market reform as a betrayal
of socialism. Raúl, the pragmatist, sees it as an economic reality,
which someday may have to be implemented in Cuba.

As second-in-command, Raúl has only recently emerged from the shadows,
but experts say the two brothers have balanced their strengths and
weaknesses since they plotted the Cuban Revolution of 1959.

Now that Fidel has handed temporary control to Raúl as he recuperates
from gastrointestinal surgery as announced Monday night, analysts are
weighing the kind of regime that his 75-year-old brother would form
while at Cuba's helm.

So long as Raúl is a provisional leader, no one expects anything but the
status quo. Even in the long term, many say his economic instincts and
organizational knack won't amount to much in the face of domestic and
foreign pressure.

But should Raúl eventually become the permanent leader of Cuba after
Fidel's death, some analysts say the less-iconic younger brother could
ultimately start to build consensus and open up the country's economy,
allowing greater numbers of Cubans to set up restaurants, rent out rooms
to tourists, and sell farm products to local markets. Some believe this
could also start to ease hostilities with the United States.

"After Raúl had a chance to put his own stamp on things, I would expect
better relations with the U.S.," says Brian Latell, a former CIA agent
who authored a biography of Raúl called "After Fidel." "That would be
something that would reflect the overwhelming desire of the Cuban
people. In other words, it would be a politically smart move."

Over the years, Raúl has steadily taken on more state responsibilities.
But he does not share widespread support among the general population,
experts say, because they view him as brutal — after the hard line he is
believed to have taken with his enemies in the early days of the
revolution. Most of his support comes from the military, which he has
run for over 45 years.

"He does not occupy the same place in the historiography of the Cuban
Revolution as his brother," says Mark Falcoff, author of "Cuba, the
Morning After." "But you don't have to be popular to be a dictator."

Raúl's Economic Vision

Raúl's economic vision is where most see room for change after Fidel.
The military has largely been handling tourism, which requires foreign
investment.

When the subsidies of the Soviet Union disappeared with its collapse in
1991, it was Raúl who urged the opening up of incentives to farmers to
be able to sell surplus goods to local markets — reforms that have been
scaled back in recent years. Many say he would likely reinstitute and
expand such measures.

"If Raúl Castro introduces some sort of reforms or openings, even those
that maybe are not that large," says Ian Vasquez, director of the
Project on Global Economic Liberty at the libertarian CATO Institute,
"those might be cracks in the system that are difficult to control, and
may make it hard to hold Cuban socialism together."

This movement could be meaningless for better U.S.-Cuba ties, however,
if the U.S. continues to refuse to deal with any member of the Castro
team. A report issued recently on U.S. plans in a post-Fidel Cuba
pledged $80 million to bolster Cuban democracy. "Raúl is perfectly
capable of bringing about some change," says Wayne Smith, a former U.S.
diplomat in Havana. "He is open to the idea of a constructive
relationship with the U.S. But the Bush administration is not open to
that at all."

At a White House briefing Tuesday afternoon, spokesman Tony Snow said
that the U.S. has no plans to rethink its relationship with Cuba for now
in light of the temporary transition of power. "There are no plans to
reach out," Mr. Snow said.

One of the biggest challenges that Raúl, or any leader after Fidel, will
face is a rise in expectations anticipated after regime change.
"Everyone in Cuba, from the youngest school child to pensioner, is
waiting for something to change," says Dennis Hays, a former official of
the Cuban-American National Foundation, an organization dedicated to
replacing Fidel's regime with a market-based, democratic government.

And he says no government has the power to bring about the multitude of
changes he claims are needed in Cuba, even if it were to put forth its
best effort. "There will be an increasing level of unrest, which will
lead [Raúl] to crack down. At the end of the day, I don't know that
society will look all that different."

Although Raúl has been said to admire the way China has slowly phased in
market-friendly reforms, many say that enthusiasm has waned because of
the money that Hugo Chávez, the leader of Venezuela, has been able to
provide Cuba in oil revenue. "The significant subsidy and security has
reduced the political incentive to open up further," says Julia Sweig,
author of "Inside the Cuban Revolution" and Director of Latin America
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington-based think tank.

But so has the U.S. government's demands for regime change, she says.
And without Fidel, who is the symbol of anti-Americanism, Cuba might
raise its defenses higher. "The instinct of everybody there in
leadership will be to batten down the hatches," she says. "The moment is
a delicate one."

After Raúl?

Having just celebrated his 75th birthday, Raúl, if he is to take the
permanent lead of Cuba, will eventually be replaced. For now, chatter of
candidates is speculative, but Mr. Latell, the Raúl biographer, says
Vice President Carlos Lage could be a successor. Rumors also swirl
around Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, and National Assembly
President Ricardo Alarcón — men who have already been ruling the country
in its transition plans, say experts.

No one knows who will eventually be chosen, but Latell says Raúl has a
keen ability when it comes to finding and grooming the next generation.
"It was Raúl who brought Che Guevara into the Cuba revolutionary fold,"
he says. "Che was his first big recruitment. He is good at that."

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