What's going on in Cuba?

What's going on in Cuba?
Guy W. Farmer
Special to the Appeal
August 20, 2006

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As Cuban dictator-for-life Fidel Castro celebrated his 80th birthday
from his Havana sick bed last Sunday, he advised the Cuban people that
he faces a long period of recovery from major intestinal surgery and
warned them to prepare for "adverse news." Which raises a provocative
question: What's really going on in the upper echelons of Cuba's
Communist regime?

"I feel very happy," Castro said in a statement to the youth newspaper
Juventud Rebelde. "For those who care about my health, I promise to
fight for it." But he was clearly showing his age in four photographs
published by the newspaper. But then, aren't we all?

Following his late July surgery, Castro named his younger brother Raul
to take over temporarily as president and head of the Cuban Communist
Party. But neither brother had been seen in public until official Party
newspapers last week published photos of a bed-ridden Fidel accompanied
by Raul and Venezuelan dictator wannabe Hugo Chavez. The revealing
photos have given raise to a tide of speculation about the future of
that isolated and long-suffering Caribbean nation among Cuba-watchers
inside and outside the U.S. government, including leaders of the
politically active CubanÐAmerican community in South Florida.

"So long as Raul is a provisional leader, no one expects anything but
the status quo," wrote Andres Oppenheimer, a knowledgeable Cuba-watcher
and veteran Miami Herald Latin America correspondent. "But should Raul
eventually become the permanent leader of Cuba ... some analysts say the
younger brother could ultimately start to build consensus and open up
the country's economy. ... Some believe this could also start to ease
hostilities with the United States."

Well maybe, but not in South Florida, where jubilant Cuban-Americans
took to the streets to "celebrate" Fidel's deteriorating health.
Oppenheimer warned U.S. government officials and leaders of the
Cuban-American community about making aggressive and/or hostile
statements about Cuba's delicate political situation. The Miami
journalist interviewed Guillermo Paya, a respected leader of Cuba's
Christian Liberation Movement, who praised the Bush administration for
its "caution" and "prudence," so far at least. On the other hand, Paya
said comments by Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) were notably unhelpful.

"The time has come in Cuba for a campaign of civil resistance and civil
disobedience," the Cuban-American politician declared. But Paya
countered that "the U.S. message should be to ratify that there is no
such thing as a U.S. threat toward Cuba" and that "the Cuban process
must be defined exclusively by the Cuban people." As a former U.S.
diplomat in Latin America, I endorse a moderate, conciliatory approach.

There has long been a behind-the-scenes struggle for leadership in
post-Castro Cuba between Cuban-Americans and democracy advocates on the
island. While I was stationed in Caracas, Venezuela, in the late 1980s
the Miami-based Cuban-American Foundation, led by the late Jorge
Mas-Canosa, who was very well connected in Washington, tried to take
over an influential Cuban exile organization in Venezuela. Although
Mas-Canosa obviously envisioned himself as president of a democratic
Cuba, many other Cubans inside and outside of the island thought a new
leader should come from those who stayed on the island to fight for
democracy and human rights.

Washington Post Latin America correspondents Karen DeYoung and Manuel
Roig-Franco see the current situation as a "test-drive" for a future
transfer of power in Cuba. Brother Raul's temporary accession to power
"marks the beginning of a long-planned transition designed to maintain
iron-fisted (Communist Party) control of the island after Fidel Castro's
eventual death," they wrote last week. "This is an opportunity for them
to see how this (the transition to Raul) would work."

For its part, the Bush administration last month released a 40-page
report issued by the Presidential Commission for Assistance to a Free
Cuba, which is co-chaired by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
Cuban-American Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez. Although the report
pledged $80 million in new funding for Cuban opposition and democratic
forces, including Miami-based Radio and TV Marti, it offered no new
policy initiatives.

Radio and TV Marti, which were in the planning stage when I was at the
Voice of America in the late 1970s, have siphoned-off millions of
dollars from VOA Spanish-language broadcasts to serve miniscule
listening and viewing audiences in Cuba. Most Cubans can't listen to
Radio Marti or view TV Marti because those broadcasts have been jammed
for many years. Nevertheless, the Bush administration continues to pour
millions of scarce public diplomacy dollars down the Radio/TV Marti rat
hole.

In my opinion, most of the scenarios for post-Castro Cuba are pure
speculation. No one really knows what will happen when one or both of
the Castro brothers depart the political scene but, as democracy
advocate Gullermo Paya stated, the future of the island belongs to the
Cuban people themselves and not to ambitious Cuban-Americans in Miami or
to anti-Castro politicians in Washington.

•••

BURNING MAN Ð I was reminded last week that the annual Burning Man Naked
Drug Festival is almost upon us. So if your idea of a good time is to do
drugs on public (BLM) lands and take off your clothes in front of young
children, the Black Rock Desert near Gerlach is the place to be over the
Labor Day weekend. Good luck!

• Guy W. Farmer, a semi-retired journalist and former U.S. diplomat,
resides in Carson City.

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