By Christopher Elliott
Tribune Media Services
Don't pack your bags for Havana just yet.
Fidel Castro may have announced his resignation, but that doesn't mean
you'll be touring Cuba any time soon.
"It's still early for the American tourist to plan on sipping a mojito
at the Hotel Nacional," says David Guggenheim, who directs the Cuba
program at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at
Texas A&M University in Corpus Christi, Texas. "But change just might be
in the wind."
It could take time — months, or even years — before Cuba becomes the hot
destination it used to be for American visitors, according to experts.
But the doors to this once-closed island nation are already open to some
Americans, and Castro's retirement is likely to open them even wider.
Nothing is likely to change while President Bush remains in office.
However, after the presidential election in November, and just in time
for tourist season in the Caribbean, people expect a thaw. "Raul Castro
has indicated in the past that he would be open to a dialogue with the
U.S., and presidential candidate Barack Obama has expressed his
willingness to open a dialogue with Cuba," says Guggenheim.
Not quite closed
Travel to Cuba isn't illegal for Americans — at least, not all of them.
Government officials, journalists, researchers and people attending
conferences are allowed to visit the island nation, according to the
State Department. Technically, travel to Cuba is limited under the Cuban
Assets Control Regulations and the Trading With the Enemy Act.
About 65,000 Americans visited Cuba legally in 2006. Among them were
students at Ohio Northern University's 11-week program in Environmental
Management at the University of Havana. Terry Maris, an Ohio Northern
University management professor who has visited Cuba many times as an
academic, estimates that approximately 150,000 American tourists visit
Cuba each year illegally. "If the embargo were to be lifted by the U.S.
government, it is estimated that from 3 to 5 million American tourists
would visit the island in the first year alone," he says.
And that's just the start. Several years after travel restrictions are
loosened, Havana could conceivably become a subtropical Las Vegas —
which is more or less what it was before Castro came to power.
"In the post-World War II period, Cuba outranked all countries in the
world in the volume of passenger flow to and from the United States,"
says Lisandro Perez, a sociology professor and Cuba expert at Florida
International University in Miami. "With jet airplanes, the actual
flight is less than half and hour. Havana and Varadero (Beach) are
closer to Miami than Disney World."
Once you have a license to visit, you can fly directly to Cuba from
Miami, New York and Los Angeles on charter flights operated by some of
the major U.S. airlines. But there are other ways to reach Havana. Some
of the most popular routes include stopovers in Mexico, Canada, the
Cayman Islands, Jamaica and the Bahamas. (A site for planning a Cuba
vacation is the Cuba Tourist Board's Canadian Web site,
Among the options:
advertising
— For larger groups, Miami-based ABC Charters (www.abc-charters.com/)
offers flights to licensed groups visiting Cuba.
— Signature Travel (www.signaturevacations.com), one of the largest tour
operators in Canada, has all-inclusive "dollar stretching" Cuban
packages to Varadero, Cayo Coco, Holguin, Cayo Largo and Havana.
— Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Tico Travel (www.destinationcuba.com/)
runs tours to Cuba for licensed U.S. travelers.
Sure, getting to the island can be something of a hassle. But experts
don't think it will stay that way for much longer. "There's momentum in
Congress to make travel to Cuba easier," says Susan Eckstein, a
sociology professor at Boston University. "As U.S. business interests in
Cuba pick up, there is support for lifting travel restrictions."
What's next?
When I lived in South Florida, I met many Cuban immigrants who longed
for the day Castro was gone and they could return home. For me, there
was no better symbol of that desire than the Southernmost Point buoy in
Key West, which announced Havana was only 90 miles away. In the near
term, at least, Havana might as well be on another planet, say people
who are familiar with the situation.
"As far as legal travel, nothing has changed," says Maria Lopez, host of
the TV show "Judge Maria Lopez" and a Cuban immigrant who has visited
Cuba more than 30 times in the last decade. "Hopefully Fidel Castro's
departure will help change U.S. policy to allow unrestricted travel to
the island."
Part of the problem, say people who have seen Cuba recently, is that its
tourism infrastructure would buckle under the weight of all the American
tourists. That's one good reason to wait.
"Cuba only opened to tourism in the early 1990s, in response to the
collapse of the Soviet Union," says Jack Kenny, author of the book
"Cuba" (Corazon Press, 2005). The hotels built back then, he adds, were
only meant to support a few million visitors from Europe and Canada. But
the prospects of more Americans coming should spawn more investment in
hotels and tourist attractions, which could ultimately support throngs
of tourists from the mainland.
Until then, travelers who want to experience Cuba might want to book a
ticket to Miami. At least that's the view of William Talbert, president
of the Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau. "It will take some
time before Cuba can put in place the same infrastructure that Miami
has," he says. "Besides, we have the Latin flavor here."
Christopher Elliott is the ombudsman for National Geographic Traveler
magazine. His syndicated column runs weekly online in the Seattle Times.
Contact him at celliott@ngs.org.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/travel/2004320563_webtroubleshooter01.html?syndication=rss
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