Wednesday, January 24, 2007
The return to democracy in Cuba after the death of Fidel Castro is not
going to be an easy process.
For one, against all predictions, the exit of the person who has amassed
the powers of the state for nearly 50 years does not mean an automatic
fall of the regime.
Certainly, the process of change is not going to end, but it will not
occur as fast as expected.
Although Castro has designated a team to succeed him, in reality his
brother Raul Castro is at the top of the power ladder. In fact, Raul
Castro has been secretary of defense and has controlled the Cuban armed
forces for decades. It is no secret the military will play a substantial
role in the transition of this country toward democracy.
Regime change?
Analysts cannot agree on how long the Castro regime will last without
Fidel Castro. This depends on many internal and external factors, and
above all on the international community's support.
Even when the political system completely changes, the work to build a
new society will be arduous and complex.
The way in which things developed from the very moment of the revolution
on Jan. 1, 1959, tore Cuban society apart. Those who felt the new regime
put their freedoms at risk and thus prevented them from keeping their
wealth and maintaining a lifestyle of their choosing decided to quickly
abandon the country.
Families with foreign properties or investments were able to keep this
wealth, but their national assets were lost to the Cuban state. These
thousands of people have become the foundation of the Cuban Diaspora in
the United States.
Different nation
And in this country, they have kept alive their desire to go back to the
Cuba they left. However, that Cuba no longer exists. Most of the assets
confiscated from them and their parents disappeared or are in ruins.
Further, the culture and the customs have changed from what they knew at
the time they left their nation.
The emotional shock of the return will be strong for those who have in
their minds a Cuba of the past.
There are many who left years after the revolution. They will not be as
traumatized when going back, as they did not leave property and will not
find themselves trying to retake possession of what has been forever
lost. What's more, the only memory these people keep is of a life under
a political regime they opposed.
Many Cubans stayed. Some simply could not leave, but many others decided
to stay either because they identified with the political system or
because they assimilated through the political propaganda.
Half a century has gone by since the victory of the revolution, which
means there are two adult generations who are capable of making their
own decisions.
When the communist government falls and Cubans are able to choose the
society they want, there could be irreconcilable differences between
those who return from exile and those who chose to stay. This will
further burden the transition process.
Officers from the Cuban government who committed transgressions, such as
human rights violations and crimes against humanity, may well have to
answer for their acts in the courts.
But the people who stayed in the country under the regime and have no
other land to call home have the foremost right to head the process that
will change the political direction of their nation.
These people not only endured the regime, but also withstood outside
measures that were both extreme and absurd, such as an economic embargo
that did little to high-ranking government officers, but succeeded in
bringing misery to the general population.
When Fidel Castro announced his retirement, President Bush said the
future of Cuba must be in the hands of the Cuban people. He added that
those who want to initiate processes to recover properties confiscated
during the revolution will have to wait until democratic institutions
are well-functioning in Cuba. In the meantime, Bush insisted the Cuban
people are responsible for the transition toward democracy.
This should be the path, but obviously those who have waited for decades
in exile will not give up on their dreams of participating in this
historic moment.
A sign of change on the island will be that the country's destiny is in
the hands of all Cubans. There will have to be a fraternal re-encounter
to heal the wounds, to bury the hate and to alleviate the suffering of all.
The writer is a columnist for the Courier-Post. His column appears on
Wednesdays.
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