Venezuela is not Angola

Venezuela is not Angola / Camilo Ernesto Olivera Peidro
Posted on March 1, 2014

Cuba is not the same as 40 years ago, but its leaders are the same

HAVANA, Cuba, February — Cuba intervened militarily in Angola on the
side of the MPLA in August of 1975. In 1977 Revolutionary Armed Forces
(FAR) supported the government of Agostino Neto in order to suppress by
blood and fire an internal rebellion.

After that moment, the Cuban government took in its hands, in a less
surreptitious manner, control of Angola. Within the MPLA there were
divergent opinions about the role the Cubans were playing in the
country's political situation. On the death of President Neto in 1979,
they pulled strings for the appointment of Jose Eduardo DosSantos to the
post.

"In 1978, Fidel Castro knew that he could not count on the USSR
unconditionally," says an ex-official connected to the Cuban embassy in
Angola at that time, "and his plan B consisted of strengthening
political and military control over Angola. The Russians involved
themselves in the matter when they saw the possibility of trafficking
arms in exchange for gold and precious stones. This the high Cuban
officialdom did from the moment they gained control of the Angolan
governmental entities and the main access roads into the country. The
political and military caste that came into power in Russia post-1991,
did it, too, with the money earned there and in other low intensity
military conflicts."

Now, in the case of Venezuela, the strategy is different but seeking the
same objective. "Venezuela is not Angola, and Cuba is not the same as it
was 40 years ago," explains my interlocutor, "but the individuals in
control are the same. They have sent civil collaborators like a screen
to try to cloak their strong presence within the structures of all
levels of that country. Chavez handed the house keys to the Cuban DGI
(State Intelligence Directorate), and Maduro is a bad version of Jose
Eduardo DosSantos."

If the political situation in Venezuela goes completely out of control,
the first victims would be the Cuban civil collaborators. "And in the
same way as happened in 1977 when Nito Alves confronted Agostino Neto,
it cannot be ruled out that FAR will intervene in Venezuela citing the
protection of the collaborators."

The question of how they will do it is more of form than of substance.
But Angola was a country recently released from colonial domination, in
contrast with Venezuela which possesses a democratic tradition that has
shown itself to be persistent. "Nevertheless the silence or complicity
of the Latin-American countries with the abuses of the Burro from
Miraflores is a bad sign."

On the other hand, the government of Raul Castro is facing a difficult
choice: "If the military intervention by Cuban troops generates a spiral
of such violence that it involves massive deaths among the civilian
Venezuelan population and Cubans, the political cost for Raul Castro
would be very high within and outside of Cuba. The US government would
hold all the cards in its favor to declare it a hemispheric plague. The
Latin-American governments would have to take a clear position in the
matter or public opinion would hold them to account." And a possible
dialog with the CEE would grind to a halt.

Towards the interior of Cuban, just look at the sad destiny that the
African veterans suffer. My interlocutor said: "It is unlikely that a
lightning political campaign of Raulism will gain the support of the
island's people for military intervention in Venezuela. At first, he
will send elite troops trained in confronting disturbances in urban zones."

In 1992 Fidel Castro declared that the era of Cuban military missions
abroad had ended. Two decades later, the drums of another fratricidal
war may be about to beat on the doors of the Cuban family. The worst
scenario possible is not impossible.

Cubanet, February 28, 2014 / Camilo Ernesto Olivera Peidro

Translated by mlk

Source: Venezuela is not Angola / Camilo Ernesto Olivera Peidro |
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