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Friday, January 19, 2007

Post-Castro exodus might swamp base

Post-Castro exodus might swamp base
By Ben Fox
The Associated Press
Posted January 19 2007

GUANTANAMO BAY NAVAL BASE, Cuba · If Cubans flee in droves when Fidel
Castro dies, those intercepted at sea will likely wind up at this base
where almost 400 men captured in the war on terrorism are held, creating
"an incredible challenge" for U.S. forces, the base commander said.

Military officials say they have begun planning for a possible mass
exodus, scouting potential sites to detain migrants in tents while
keeping them far from the prisoners suspected of links to al-Qaida or
the Taliban.

Most of the current prisoners, captured after the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks, have been held since 2002 without charges at this
U.S. base in southeastern Cuba.

A sudden surge of migrants would return Guantanamo to an earlier role.
More than 40,000 Haitian and Cuban migrants were held there in the 1990s
when political and economic turmoil in their countries prompted a mass
movement toward U.S. shores.

"We continue to plan for the possibility of that happening again," said
Navy Capt. Mark Leary, the commanding officer of the base.

It would be much more difficult next time. In the 1990s, Guantanamo Bay,
which covers 45 square miles of land and water, was a sleepy Navy
outpost with plenty of open space. Now, the land where most of the
migrants were held is occupied by Camp Delta, a prison complex behind
tall fences and coils of razor wire.

The United States would have to increase troop levels to provide
additional security and bring in more food and other supplies, most of
which now come in a barge every two weeks.

"Logistically, it would just be an incredible challenge," Leary said.

Planning for a potential exodus has not involved Cuban officials, Leary
said. Top officers based at Guantanamo Bay regularly meet with their
Cuban counterparts to discuss low-level practical issues such as how to
fight fires that frequently scorch the dry brush that surrounds
Guantanamo Bay.

Castro, 80, has not been seen in public since he temporarily handed over
power to his brother, Defense Minister Raul Castro, and underwent
emergency intestinal surgery in July.

In past periods of turmoil, thousands of Cubans have taken to the sea.
The U.S. Coast Guard has tried to intercept them before they reach land.
Under the so-called wet-foot-dry-foot policy, Cubans intercepted at sea
are generally sent back while those who reach U.S. soil are allowed to stay.

Luis Diaz, a U.S. Coast Guard spokesman in Miami, said officials there
aren't expecting large numbers of migrants.

"Since [Fidel Castro's] brother took over, we've seen a decrease in
migrants," he said. "A lot of people expected the opposite, but our
numbers indicate there has been a decrease."

If the base suddenly had to hold thousands of migrants, officials say it
would likely be on the western side.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/cuba/sfl-agitmo19jan19,0,7034387.story?coll=sfla-news-cuba

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