Officials believe Raul Castro is in control of a relatively stable Cuba
By Pablo Bachelet
McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON - Raul Castro is firmly in control of Cuba and in a position
to keep the island stable, at least for the short term, after his
brother Fidel dies, a top U.S. intelligence official told a Senate
committee Thursday.
Army Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, the director of the Defense
Intelligence Agency, also said that Raul, who's been Cuba's defense
minister since the early 1960s, enjoys "widespread respect and support
among Cuban military leaders who will be crucial in a permanent
government succession."
Maples' remarks, in a brief written statement to the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence, provide the first glimpse into what U.S.
officials believe might occur in the months following Fidel's demise.
Raul Castro took the reins of power after Fidel fell ill nearly six
months ago.
"In Cuba, Raul Castro is firmly in control as Cuba's acting president,"
Maples said, "and will likely maintain power and stability after Fidel
Castro dies, at least for the short-term."
Until now, U.S. officials have said that a transition was under way, but
provided few clues on whether they thought it would go smoothly or turn
volatile.
The U.S. intelligence community's top chiefs joined Maples in an annual
Senate hearing on threats to U.S. security. Though the hearing focused
almost entirely on Iraq and terrorism, the testimony shed some new light
on the intelligence community's latest thinking on Latin America.
Latin American democracies, the officials said, fared well after the
wave of presidential elections last year but are most threatened in
Venezuela and Bolivia.
The outgoing Director of National Intelligence, John D. Negroponte,
whose agency coordinates the work of 16 U.S. spying organizations, said
the "key drivers" that will influence events in a post-Fidel Cuba are
"how cohesive the governing elite will remain in the absence of Cuba's
iconic leader, how astute Raul Castro proves to be as his brother's
successor, and how much pressure the population will exert on the
government in seeking economic and political reforms."
Negroponte, who in the past has said that Fidel Castro had months to
live, shed little new light on the 80-year old Cuban leader's health. In
his prepared remarks, he said that Castro's "apparent impending demise"
would deprive Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez of "a valued mentor and
strategic advisor." The Cuban government has refused to reveal the
nature of Castro's illness.
Negroponte's comments also suggested that the U.S. government believes
that Chavez is moving to inherit Fidel's mantle as Latin America's
leading leftist revolutionary.
Citing recent announcements of plans to revoke the license of an
opposition TV station and nationalize telecommunications and power
companies, Negroponte said that after his landslide Dec. 3 re-election
victory, Chavez promised to extend his "revolution".
"Chavez is among the most stridently anti-American leaders anywhere in
the world, and will continue to try to undercut U.S. influence in
Venezuela, in the rest of Latin America, and elsewhere internationally,"
he said.
Negroponte also said that, like Chavez, Bolivia's elected president is
taking advantage of his popularity to undercut the opposition and
eliminate checks on his authority.
Bolivian President Evo Morales, a close ally of Castro and Chavez, is
seeking to rewrite his country's constitution and is considered to be on
a collision course with some of the wealthier regions of the nation that
are threatening to break the country in two.
Maples also reiterated U.S. concerns over recent Venezuelan arms
purchases, including contracts to buy 24 Russian Su-30 Mk2 advanced
fighter jets and 50 transport and attack helicopters. He said that
defense spending in oil-rich Venezuela grew 12.5 percent last year.
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/16439609.htm
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