By Emilio Rappold Jan 15, 2007, 18:40 GMT
Rio de Janeiro/Caracas - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
could not really enjoy his New Year's holiday on the beach at Guaruja.
According to Brazilian media, his Venezuelan colleague and 'still
friend' Hugo Chavez gave him sleepless nights.
With the radicalization of his tropical revolution to become 21st
Century Socialism in Venezuela, the left-wing populist set off the alarm
signals not only of his political enemies, like the United States, but
also of followers and friends throughout South America.
Chavez 'flirts dangerously with authoritarianism' and goes beyond the
limits of democracy, Lula complained in private, according to the daily
Folha de Sao Paulo.
Until now, most observers have seen in the former parachutist something
like a dog who barks but does not bite.
'Now he really bites,' said the prestigious Brazilian columnist Clovis
Rossi.
Even before Chavez received the equally-controversial Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the weekend in order to strengthen the 'alliance
against imperialism,' he dealt one blow after another.
In a period of only a few days, Chavez nixed the renewal of the licence
for an opposition TV station; said he will nationalize the country's
largest elctricity and telecommunications firms; and announced his
intention to seek special powers, end the autonomy of the country's
Central Bank, and push for special powers from Congress - which he
controls - to run for an unlimited number of reelections. And then - as
he was inaugurated for a new mandate expiring in 2013 - he used the
motto 'socialism or death.'
Even the Chavez-friendly Venezuelan sociologist Edgardo Lander admits
that there is a risk that the country could slip into a totalitarian system.
'The situation is complicated. A lot of what was achieved (under Chavez)
can be lost if one implements a certain system from the top,' he said.
Hernan Castillo, a Social Science professor at the Simon Bolivar
University in Caracas, turns to stronger terms.
'An autocracy is coming over us which will be based on the generous flow
of oil dollars,' he warned.
Economically, the application of socialism in Venezuela would be easy,
since the state already has a 70-80 per cent share of the Gross Domestic
Product.
The largest Brazilian daily, O Globo, said in a weekend commentary that
Venezuela - which at 49 years has the oldest uninterrupted democracy in
South America - travels 'in the direction of an undisguised dictatorship.'
According to O Globo, Chavez fancies himself more and more in the role
of turning his country into a 'large Cuba.' The daily points out
critically that many countries in the region, such as Bolivia,
Argentina, Ecuador or Brazil, not only do not turn their backs on
Venezuela but actually kowtow to Chavez.
But the reasons for such an attitude are not only ideological - they are
also economic. Venezuela supports small countries with oil and funds,
sends soldiers to Bolivia, buys Argentine government bonds and is
becoming one of Brazil's most significant trade partners.
Brazil exported 3.3 billion dollars to Venezuela between January and
November 2006 - one billion more than to traditional partners like
France or the United Kingdom. The largest infrastructure projects in
Venezuela, such as the enlargement of the underground network in
Caracas, has been granted to Brazilian companies.
However, already prior to the radicalization of Chavez's Revolution,
investors reacted negatively to events in Venezuela. As the UN
Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said, direct investment
grew 34 per cent across the world in 2006. It only fell in Latin
America, which showed a decrease of 4.5 per cent due to 'legal insecurity.'
Things look even worse for the future.
'Until now we had the impression that (Chavez) backed foreign
investment,' said the Bank of America in a statement about the most
recent developments.
'With this exotic march towards socialism, Chavez affects the whole of
Latin America,' said the head of International Relations of the
Industrial Federation in the Brazilian commercial capital of Sao Paulo.
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur
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