Cuba and the United States will resume their relations… alea jacta est

Cuba and the United States will resume their relations… alea jacta est*
/ Jeovany Jimenez Vega
Posted on January 1, 2015
By Jeovany Jimenez Vega

The decision by the governments of Cuba and the US to normalize
diplomatic relations could go down in the record books as the news of
the year – and among the most momentous world news of the century so
far. The more than 50 years of litigious relations – one of the longest
disputes in human history – will justify every headline, column, or
essay that will be devoted to this topic.

But it is worthwhile to reflect objectively on the possible consequences
that this decision will have on the Cuban people – a decision made
without taking into account the internal opposition voices that for
years have been sounding alarms about the potential dangers of repealing
instruments of pressure such as the US embargo and the European Union
Common Position – without the Olive Green government having, at least,
ratified and implemented the International Covenants on Human Rights
that it signed in February, 2008.

A lifting of these coercive mechanisms without a minimum guarantee that
these agreements – as well as other demands made by Cuban civil society
– will be implemented, would imply the definitive and certain
recognition of legitimacy that this dynastic government so badly needs –
right when it knows itself to be crushed by historical evidence, and
seeks, desperately and at any price, some escape route.

For a long time I have counted myself among those who opt for the end of
the embargo, because I have always thought that without this great
excuse, within a very short time the Havana totalitarian regime's
economic inefficiency, a purely endogenous evil, would definitively be
shown for the sham that it is. I am still today convinced of this
argument, but the coincidental timing of a series of very specific
circumstances, in the midst of an unprecedented context, has made me
question several points in this regard.

There is one essential difference between this particular moment in time
and any previous phase of this Stalinist regime. By now it is quite
clear that the old guard of the Sierra Maestra has run out of time. The
failure of their proposition is no longer something yet to be proved; it
is established historical fact.

These octogenarians know full-well that the days of free petroleum that
Moscow provided for 30 years will never be seen again; that for now,
China might be smiling, but in business matters, a deal's a deal,
payment will be required, and then, what will they do?

Cuban officials also know that under the conditions that were in force
until this past 17 December – and despite their much-vaunted Foreign
Investment Law – they would be unable, given their well-deserved
reputations as petty con-men, to deceive any important foreign investor
with half a brain in his head. Besides, they know that Cuba's tourism
industry will never take off because it cannot compete with all the
surrounding excellence in the region – and that they lack the financial
resources to repair this mega-disaster.

On top of it all, they know that their main source of revenue – the
exploitation of public health professionals – is in imminent danger of a
major setback if its principal market, Venezuela (which appears about
ready for the death sentence) succumbs. In addition, the ever-increasing
emigration of qualified personnel from this sector augurs the potential
downfall of this dirty global money-laundering operation.

For all those reasons, the Castro regime strategists long ago looked
towards the brutal and disordered North that despises them and fixed
their hopes on that lifeline that Obama is now casting to them just when
they were exhaling their last breath…

Now, the generalship (which in another time might have been
intransigent) will once again open its legs (as it did for that
community of beaten-up gusanos (worms)** in 1980, when it ran out of
money in the 90s). Now "The Enemy,"*** which presumably is the same one
to whom not even an inch can be given, is suddenly transfigured (to the
surprise of some and the rage of others) into the floating piece of wood
remaining after the shipwreck, the lifesaver for an eternal Robinson
Crusoe who had already wreaked as much damage as possible upon his lost
island.

In spite of all this, I remain a supporter of the lifting of the embargo
but only – and this is non-negotiable – if this act is accompanied by,
or is conducive to, the unconditional deference to the human rights of
my people by the low-lifes…I'm sorry, I meant to say, by the apex of the
Cuban establishment.****

However, once this decision is made, two unavoidable consequences appear
on the immediate horizon. On the one hand the Cuban government will
breathe easy, receiving in the short-term a respectable income stream
that otherwise would have been out of reach (or, and it's the same
thing, it will feel safe and more secure than ever to refine new
repressive strategies).

On the other hand – and this is their favorable edge – this totalitarian
government has finally run out of its principal justifying argument
against its "perpetual enemy" and can no longer maintain its stance as
"a besieged people" (or, and again, it's the same thing, from this
moment on, the world will judge that our economic ruin is really due to
the stubbornness of the Cuban leadership that kept this country stuck in
the past).

In case things remain as they are portrayed to us, the Cuban people will
continue being deprived of such basic civil and political rights as that
of opinion and freedom of thought, of assembly and association. The
regime will continue vetoing our right to access the uncensored Internet.

In the Castros' Cuba, the existence of one, single Communist and
despotic party – perhaps even more despotic and autocratic than ever –
will continue to be legal, as well as one official press subject to the
same censorship as always. The world will continue to hear ever more
frequent and violent news reports of repressive government actions
against an opposition that will continue to be officially unrecognized,
and of elections that will continue to be a total farce – with the only
possible sleight-of-hand coming from the Plaza of the Revolution.

This is what very likely would occur starting now, assuming that in this
mise en place all the pieces have been shown to us. I say this because I
do not discard the possibility that between both governments there has
been a much deeper and more ambitious roadmap drawn up than what has
been publicly announced. At first glance one has the impression that the
US gave up too much for the little offered by Cuba – and that if both
parties have demonstrated anything in common, it is how obstinate they
can be when they think are right.

The evident asymmetry of the proposals is surprising, even suspicious.
On the US side, there is so much that reflects a splendidly generous
Obama. As for Cuba, we have a grey Raúl Castro focusing on the return of
the three prisoners, while relegating the end of the half-century
embargo to an aside, as though speaking of baseball season playoffs.

From this I infer that there is much more to these proceedings than
meets the eye –especially if we consider, in all its weight, the direct
intervention of Pope Francis.

Also, I do not discount the megalomaniac instinct of the Castros
requiring that all announcements be issued progressively, in a scattered
manner – slowly but relentlessly, in Raulist language – so that there
should be no ugly impression that in the end they surrendered before the
evidence that Fidel Castro publicly recognized years ago, that the Cuban
economic model doesn't work.

To accept this proposal would not be at odds with the pragmatic North
American spirit, for which the only important thing is to achieve the
stated goal, even more so if the sole obstacle is something so fragile
and simple as the injured macho pride of some little old decrepit men.

But in the end, the die is cast: From now on, Cuba and the US will be
good and respectable neighbors. Obama and Castro announced it barely a
week after thousands of Cuban opposition members and civil rights
activists were threatened and/or beaten and/or detained – but certainly
all repressed – this past 10 December, International Human Rights Day,
scarcely 90 miles from the North American coast.

However, to let Mr. Obama off the hook, it must be recognized, that 90
miles of open sea is too far for the President to be able to hear the
cries of helplessness and the din of the crowds; to be able to perceive
the intangibles of fear, pain from beatings, and the taste of blood.

This agreement being the prelude to the imminent implementation of the
European Common Pact, we must face this certainty: As of today, we are
left alone vis-a-vis the Monster. The fight is being observed by the
world at a prudent distance. From now on, the liberty of Cuba will be,
more than ever, our task alone.

Translator's Notes:

*Latin for "the die is cast"
**"Gusano" (worm) is an insult hurled by the Cuban regime and its
supporters to any person who has opposed the regime in any way, or who
has left the country to escape it. The term has become a symbol of pride
among opponents and exiles.
***"El Enemigo" (The Enemy) is a common epithet used by the regime, the
state-run media, and supporters, when referring to the US.
****The writer is making a play on words, offsetting the Cuban slang
word crápula (low-life) against cúpula, which literally translates as
"dome" but is commonly used to denote those at the highest level of power.

Translated by: Hombre de Paz and Alicia Barraqué Ellison

22 December 2014

Source: Cuba and the United States will resume their relations… alea
jacta est* / Jeovany Jimenez Vega | Translating Cuba -
http://translatingcuba.com/cuba-and-the-united-states-will-resume-their-relations-alea-jacta-est-jeovany-jimenez-vega/