Don't fall for regime's manipulation of public opinion

Posted on Fri, Sep. 15, 2006

CUBA
Don't fall for regime's manipulation of public opinion
BY OTTO REICH
oreich@ottoreichassociates.com

If the reports of Fidel Castro's serious illness are true and he is
close to his end, the Cuban government will try to use every possible
trick to stay in power. Americans should not fall for one standard
deception: rumors that the U.S. government has begun ''secret talks''
with the Castro (in this case Raúl) regime.

Like everything related to the Castro regime, official statements on the
illness and transfer of power to Raúl cannot be accepted at face value.
While they may be genuine, they may also not be. That is not to say that
the illness is faked. But until Fidel's doctors release the results of a
biopsy, or otherwise prove that he has a malignant tumor, for example,
then the illness, as the transfer of power, may prove to be transient.
It would not be the first effort by the Cuban government to use Fidel's
failing health to create conflict within the Cuban-American community
and between it and our government.

Many Cuba watchers suspected that the nearly 15 years of previous rumors
of Fidel's demise were part of an organized Cuban government
disinformation effort. It could have had various motives:

• To demoralize the Cuban opposition, both inside and outside the
island, when Fidel repeatedly and miraculously resuscitated or
recuperated from his ``fatal illness.''

• To dissuade potential opponents from plotting anti-government action
by convincing them that since Fidel was about to die soon they should
not risk death in trying to remove him.

• To allow his secret police to closely monitor the reaction to the
death rumors in the political and military inner circle in Cuba; see who
tried to take advantage of a possible power vacuum.

• To practice the succession mechanism.

• To gauge the actions of the U.S. government.

All of these are important factors for an obsessive-repressive regime:
to test the loyalty of its adherents and the reaction of its enemies,
especially the ``foreign devil.''

Regardless of the validity of the current reports, the Castro government
is once again manipulating the news to influence U.S. opinion. Just as
the earlier death reports were accompanied by rumors of secret talks
between the United States and Cuba, this summer's health crisis created
a spate of gossip that the United States is holding such talks with Raúl
or with others in the Cuban government to ensure that ''stability trumps
freedom'' in case of a real succession.

Americans should not fall for that ploy. Based on recent conversations I
have had with friends and former colleagues in the most senior, relevant
positions of the U.S. government, reports of secret or other talks with
Raúl or his brother's government are ''fantasy.'' My contacts tell me
that the administration position is clear: no acceptance of a
succession. I also know this first-hand. When I worked at the White
House, I had candid conversations on this subject with President Bush.
He despises despots, stands for freedom in Cuba and will not accept
phony reforms or trading one dictator for another. He has never wavered
from this position and his officials know it.

At an Aug. 23 press conference, Assistant Secretary of State for the
Western Hemisphere Thomas Shannon said this about dialogue with Cuba:
``Where the conversation, we think, needs to take place right now is not
between us and the regime; it's between the regime and the Cuban people.
Because ultimately, what we're looking at is a sign of political
opening. We're not looking for a diplomatic opening to the United
States. Ultimately, our goal has never been to fix our bilateral
relationship with Cuba. Our goal has been to free the Cuban people and
to create a democracy, recognizing that in that process will be the
solution to the bilateral problems.''

That is the policy of this government, and the bad memories of a
previous administration conducting secret migration talks with the
Cubans are not applicable to the present one.

Especially if the reports of Fidel's imminent death are true, and if he
has irreversibly transferred power to his brother in a cynical parody of
a constitutional succession, it is most important that the U.S.
government act on the basis of facts and not rumors.

Waning revolution

The Cuban-American community, which has so much to contribute to the
rebuilding of its ancestral home, also must not allow gossip or malice
to guide its actions.

This is the moment for thoughtful planning for constructive assistance
to a transitional, not successor, government.

What a failed dictatorship does to amuse itself in its final hours does
not matter except when it affects U.S. foreign policy or domestic
politics. We should not allow ourselves to be manipulated by a
revolution that, regardless of Fidel Castro's health, died long ago.

Otto Reich, a former assistant secretary of state for the Americas, is a
Washington-based business consultant.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/opinion/15522782.htm