By Marc Frank in Havana
Published: July 19 2007 21:57 | Last updated: July 19 2007 21:57
National security was uppermost on Cuban authorities' minds last July
when Fidel Castro ceded power after 47 years to undergo the first of a
series of intestinal operations.
The embattled island's leaders circled the wagons around their felled
comandante as they worked to stave off any confrontation with the US,
ensure domestic stability and continue growth – goals they have met
under acting president and Communist party leader Raúl Castro.
"Overall, the period since Fidel stepped aside has been one of
remarkable continuity," said Brian Latell, a retired Central
Intelligence Agency analyst who tracked the Castro brothers for decades
and is the author of the book After Fidel.
To many Cubans, "continuity" simply means that little has changed in
their daily lives.
"There is still no transportation, no housing, little affordable food
and too many restrictions," growls a Havana healthcare worker, who asked
not to be identified.
The Chinese-style reforms that many experts believed Raúl would
implement have yet to materialise, although he has taken a number of
measures, from loosening customs regulations and paying farmers more to
ordering functionaries to give access to local journalists writing
exposés on the state-run economy's glaring inefficiencies.
State-run television recently also broadcast a number of controversial
Cuban-made films shown only in theatres before.
"Raúl may think much like Fidel, but he has a completely different style
and there is no doubt he is running the country and signing all legal
documents," a Cuban intellectual said.
"Over the last year there has been much more open criticism of our
problems at all levels and without the usual counterattacks from the
unconditionals," he said.
Fidel's public presence has increased dramatically over the past few
months through his writing of ever longer and more frequent editorials
on international and domestic issues.
However, he has yet to appear in public and his whereabouts and
condition remain state secrets.
Raúl, however, remains in firm control of the rudder of government,
according to multiple sources.
He appears to be searching for ways to make daily life more palatable
and the state-dominated economy more efficient without tacking too
harshly from existing policies.
Raúl recently surveyed state businesses and party organisations asking
what obstacles they faced to improving production and how they could be
overcome. A commission on issues surrounding socialist property is hard
at work.
In his first interview after assuming power last year, Raúl suggested
dialogue was possible with Washington. He made the offer again in a
major speech in December. But there have been no talks, not even
feelers, according to Cuban and American officials, and last month Fidel
wrote there could be no discussion with Washington until the trade
embargo was lifted.
"The US inability to seize the moment and consider improving relations
with Cuba is an enormous error in judgment," said John Kirk, a Latin
American expert at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada.
The question foreign observers and better-informed Cubans are asking is,
given Fidel's new-found energy, what the future balance of power and
influence between the brothers will be as they pass the torch to a
younger generation of leaders.
Everyone admits it is a hard question to answer given the almost total
secrecy surrounding Cuba's leadership and plans.
What appears certain is that Fidel Castro will never be in a position to
fulfil his former duties again, as his intestinal woes are stress-related.
"While Fidel Castro retains much of his influence and power, it is now
being focused in a clearly different forum. He will not return to the
day-to-day business of running a national government. In-stead he will
continue to issue advice to the Cuban government, while musing on the
fate of mankind," said Mr Kirk.
Many diplomats and Cubans believe there are differences in style and
substance between the Castro brothers, especially over economic policy,
but they often caution this does not necessarily mean conflict.
"There are two groups debating the economy. The utopians around Fidel
and realists around Raúl and the realists over time will win out, but
only over a number of years and if a more liberal US president follows
Mr Bush," said a European diplomat.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a04e0c22-3638-11dc-ad42-0000779fd2ac.html
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