Tamara Lytle
Washington Bureau Chief
Posted February 1 2007
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government is ready to stop a mass migration of
Cubans to Florida's shores when President Fidel Castro dies, two
lawmakers said Wednesday after meeting with military and
homeland-security officials.
U.S. Rep. John Mica of Winter Park, the top Republican on the House
Transportation Committee, organized the closed-door meeting to find out
whether the Coast Guard and other Homeland Security agencies are prepared.
Mica said he was satisfied with what he heard. U.S. Rep. Mario
Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, agreed. The U.S. will not lose control of its
borders, Diaz-Balart said. "That's just not an option."
But Andy Gomez, assistant provost of the University of Miami and a
scholar on Cuban issues who has met with federal officials about their
plan, said they may be underestimating the fallout from Castro's death.
Gomez said as many as 500,000 Cubans could end up fleeing if social and
political unrest breaks out on the island just 90 miles from Florida.
Even an influx of 50,000 would be too much for South Florida, which
could see the bulk of the refugees, he said, straining schools, jobs,
housing, social services and other resources.
An ailing Castro handed over power to his brother, Raul, six months ago.
Since then, his health has been the subject of much speculation, with
some news reports suggesting he is near death.
Then, this week, he was photographed in a meeting with Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez.
Upon Castro's death, Gomez said, his brother likely would be given about
six months to try to improve the lot of Cubans' lives before people
begin to flee en masse.
Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Chris O'Neil said the government is ready for a
mass migration from any Caribbean island.
The Homeland Security Task Force Southeast had exercises in November and
December that brought together the various military, state, federal and
local officials who would respond.
A full-scale exercise, with role-playing of migrants landing in the U.S.
and being interdicted at sea will be conducted March 7-8.
O'Neil said the government has learned lessons from the 1980 Mariel
boatlift, in which Castro allowed more than 100,000 people to come to
Florida, as well as smaller influxes of Cubans in 1994 and 2004.
Mica's committee oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency and
the Coast Guard. The Coast Guard has taken eight cutters out of service
that would have been available to help handle a rush of Cuban evacuees.
However, O'Neil said the crews of those boats could be used to operate
small cutters for more hours each day. Aircraft and other ships can be
brought in from other parts of the country if needed.
Gomez said many potential pitfalls await any plan to deal with an
influx, such as where the refugees would be taken. U.S. policy allows
Cubans who reach American soil to have automatic legal status, but those
caught at sea are generally sent back.
Any mass migration could inflame the already testy national debate about
how open American borders should be.
Mark Krikorian, head of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors
tighter controls, said Cuban migrants are now treated differently -- in
winning legal status if they land on U.S. soil -- than people from other
countries. That should change, he said.
"The Cuban Adjustment Act is toast once Castro dies. Maybe not
immediately," he said.
Tamara Lytle can be reached at tlytle@tribune.com or 202-824-8255.
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