UM's sober view of life after Castro

Posted on Thu, Feb. 02, 2006

CUBA
UM's sober view of life after Castro
On Friday, a group of University of Miami Cuba experts will offer a grim
scenario of what will happen in Cuba after Fidel Castro's death.
BY LYDIA MARTIN
lmartin@MiamiHerald.com

It's Valentine's Day 2008 and Fidel Castro, after a mind-boggling 49
years in power, has finally met his maker. He goes anticlimactically --
complications from Parkinson's disease.

Conga lines down Calle Ocho? Horns honking through Hialeah? A
celebration that brings down the Orange Bowl?

Sure. But forget the fantasy about how it will go down on the island.

Some Cuba scholars from the University of Miami will offer what they say
is a more likely scenario during a simulation Friday night titled Cuba
Without Fidel Castro -- and it's a downer.

The American banks, fast food restaurants and construction companies
hoping to swoop in will have to pump their brakes. No frenzied
celebrations in Cuba, the scholars say. No magical switch to democracy.
No opportunity for Cuban Americans to blast onto the island to reclaim
property or to set up no-credit-no-problem used car lots.

''Too many people assume that when Fidel dies, the system is going to
immediately collapse. We don't anticipate that. Raúl Castro will take
over. The succession will be smooth and quick,'' said Jaime Suchlicki,
director of UM's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, who
will be playing the role of Gen. Alvaro Lopez Miera, chief of the
general staff for Cuba's armed forces.

FIRST, SECURITY

``The Politburo will first be concerned about security. Second, assuring
there are no rebellions, no demonstrations. Then there is the question
of the funeral. And if a U.S. delegation wants to come, do we accept
them or not accept them?''

The simulation picks up when Fidel's brother Raúl Castro, who heads the
military, convenes members of Cuba's Politburo to discuss the immediate
future. There's a script. But not a lot by way of costumes and props.
Organizers want to make sure nobody confuses their simulation with fun.

''I am going to refrain from theatrics,'' said Brian Latell, who will
portray Raúl. ``I'm not going to dress like him. I don't want to be seen
as remotely resembling him.''

In the early 1990s, Latell served as national intelligence officer for
Latin America; he is the author of the book After Fidel: The Inside
Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader.

``We are going to explore the kinds of tensions and pressures Raúl will
immediately come under. Fidel has been able to hold it all together just
by sheer force of his titanic personality. Keep in mind that Raúl is 74
and he's an alcoholic. Will he get drunk when he faces his first crisis?''

Indeed, isn't Raúl pretty much the comic relief of the Cuban government,
a sort of Billy Carter without his own brand of beer?

''People do see him that way,'' Suchlicki said. ``But actually, Raúl is
ruthless. In some ways, more ruthless than Fidel.''

Said Latell: ``He is not charismatic and, by and large, the Cuban people
don't like him. But he is a very skilled organizer. He has run the armed
forces for 47 years. This is the most successful military of any Third
World country for many years. . . . Fidel would have never lasted this
long without his brother. Raúl is underestimated in Miami.''

Among the other players:

• Alcibíades Hidalgo, a Cuban journalist who was a high-ranking member
of Cuba's Communist Party, as José Ramón Machado Ventura, a Politburo
member in charge of organization.

• Domingo Amuchastegui, former professor of Havana's Higher Institute of
International Relations, as Ricardo Alarcón, chairman of the People's
Popular National Assembly.

• Georgina Lindskoog, project coordinator for UM's Cuba Transition
Project, as Yadira Garcia, minister of basic industries.

It's not that the players believe there is no hope at all for Cuba.

''We're talking about what we think will happen immediately,'' said UM
assistant provost Andy Gómez, who will portray Abel Prieto Jiménez,
minister of culture. ``There can be significant change in Cuba, but it
will be slow, much slower than the Cuban community in Miami wants. It
will create a let-down.''

The scholars are quick to say they're not fans of the scenario they're
setting forth.

`REALITY CHECK'

''We're just offering a reality check,'' Suchlicki said.

But couldn't somebody in this cast of characters break from the pack?
Isn't there somebody in the Politburo with enough of an ego to want to
go after the Nobel Prize, at least get on the cover of Time magazine for
single-handedly steering Cuba to democracy?

''Not in this crowd,'' Gómez said.

''Their priority is to control Cuba,'' Suchlicki said. ``They don't want
to risk winding up exiled. They want to keep things as they are.''

What with the Cuban spy situation at Florida International University,
do the UM scholars think there might be Cuban spies checking out their
simulation?

''The Cuban government will send a couple of agents, I'm sure,''
Suchlicki said. ''And I do think they will probably agree with the
scenario. It's what's most likely. But are there spies around all the
time? I think there are. I think they're probably listening to us right
now.'' Suchlicki laughed.

Not that he's exactly kidding.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/world/cuba/13770945.htm