Updated June 19, 2009 13:38:26
As the world moves towards tougher sanctions against North Korea over
its nuclear program, the International Crisis Group has appealed for a
diplomatic push by the United States to resolve the situation.
But an Australian think-tank says after 16 years, hope for diplomacy is
all-but dead and the path ahead looks a lot like the Cuban missile
crisis of 1962.
Presenter:Linda Mottram
Speaker: Dr Rod Lyon, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Stephen
Smith, Australia's Foreign Minister
Listen:
http://www.abc.net.au/ra/connectasia/stories/m1755132.asx
MOTTRAM: On top of its second nuclear test and its raft of short-range
missile launches last month, North Korea's now keeping open the option
of uranium enrichment as a second path to fuel nuclear weapons while U-S
President Barack Obama has warned the U-S is no longer willing to reward
such behaviour. The International Crisis Group -- which focuses on
conflict prevention -- has issued a report urging that while a deterrent
posture be maintained and tough sanctions imposed, diplomacy by the main
player, the United States, be given another chance. But in an analysis
earlier this month, the Canberra-based think-tank the Australian
Strategic Policy Institute said North Korea's latest nuclear test is
more troubling than past provocations at many levels, and that in
particular it undermined not only the six-party talks but the broader
philosophy of a negotiated settlement.
Dr Rod Lyon was author of the analysis. He says the proposition that it
may be possible to induce Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program has
been te sted through two U-S presidencies and has been found wanting.
LYON: 16 years later we've got a North Korea that's go more plutonium,
has done more ballistic missile tests and has now conducted two nuclear
tests.
MOTTRAM: There is certainly general agreement that there is no easy
answer to the question: what's the alternative. Doctor Lyon says Doctor
Lyon says Washington appears unwilling to continue down the path of
incremental nuclear dismantlement by North Korea.
LYON: We're not going back to the six-party talks to rehash all the old
stuff again and we're probably not even going back to a bilateral
relationship in which the regional countries that are U-S allies start
to think they're being outplayed by a North Korea that's cozying up to
the US and wanting to be treated as an equal with the U-S, but if you go
past that option, then I think you're into some risky options, yes, much
tighter economic sanctions that have the word blockade associated with
them or there might even be some options that have a military component
to them.
MOTTRAM: And the world is poised to begin stopping and searching North
Korean ships as part of a stepped up sanctions plan, leading in turn to
escalated rhetoric that Pyonyang considers such moves to be a
declaration of war.
A military component could include a western attack against North
Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility, the source of its plutonium. That,
Doctor Lyon says, would cap the North Korean nuclear program, but
wouldn't end it. And the risks include potential regime collapse inside
North Korea and possible hostilities on the Korean peninsula.
Australia agrees its an alarming situation. And Foreign minister Stephen
Smith says the international community's repsonse has been robust, with
the U-N security council unanimously applying sanctions and naval
interdiction measures through resolution 1874.
SMITH: The onus is on North Korea. Having said that, I do very strongly
believe and I've made this point before that we do need again to find
some way of bringing North Korea back into a dialogue. Our starting
point for that is the six party talk process.
MOTTRAM: But minister after 16 years of trying to denuclearise, we now
have a North Korea that is clearly much more nuclear capable than ever
before, is it now time to contemplate a more forceful robust response,
perhaps even a military attempt to decapitate if you like that nuclear
capacity?
SMITH: Well I certainly think that the security council resolution was
itself a forceful and robust and unanimous response by the international
community. the international community is not advocating, has not
support military intervention at this point in the cycle.
MOTTRAM: Australia is maintaining that the intractability of the North
Korea nuclear issue does not warrant giving up on a process that saw
slow and steady process in the past. Stephen Smith also warns that
bilateral U-S/North Korea talks are a tactic by Pyongyang to get out of
its six party obligations.
ABC Radio Australia:Connect Asia:Stories:Similarities between NKorea
crisis and Cuban missile crisis (19 June 2009)
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/connectasia/stories/200906/s2602897.htm
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