Castro has 18 months to live, U.S. believes

CASTRO HEALTH CRISIS

Castro has 18 months to live, U.S. believes
Drawing conclusions from video and photographic evidence, the U.S.
government believes Cuban leader Fidel Castro has terminal cancer.
BY PABLO BACHELET
pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com

WASHINGTON - The U.S. government believes that Cuban leader Fidel Castro
has terminal cancer and has less than 18 months to live, government
officials say.

The information is not based on insider reports but rather on publicly
available materials such as videos and still photographs of Castro
released by the communist government, according to U.S. officials who
spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The officials said the government is convinced that Castro suffers from
terminal cancer but does not know what type of cancer or what part of
his body it is affecting. It was not clear when the 18-month period
began or ends.

On July 31, Castro handed most of his powers to his brother Raúl Castro
after undergoing intestinal surgery for a still undisclosed ailment.
Castro has never flatly denied earlier reports that he suffers from cancer.

Since then, the Cuban government has periodically released videotapes
and photographs of the 80-year-old Castro, including Oct. 28 footage
that showed him pointing to media reports published that day to deny
widespread speculation that he had died.

DECLINING HEALTH

The several sets of photos of Fidel Castro released by the Cuban
government have shown him in what appears to be progressively worsening
health. His speech seems weak and slow, and the one video of him walking
shows him taking wide, faltering steps.

The U.S. officials cite the Cuban leader's own report about six weeks
ago that he had lost 41 pounds as a ''wasting'' of muscle tissue -- a
telltale sign of cancer.

Several of the more recent photographs have shown him wearing an
oversize track suit in Cuba's red, white and blue colors -- and one
showed a bulge on his left hip in an indication that he may have been
fitted with a colostomy bag.

The latest video, released a month after his previous photographs,
showed him chatting on the phone and swinging his arms in a stand-up
exercise. He has retained his beard and head hair, apparently indicating
that he has not undergone the type of chemotherapy that would make his
hair fall out.

But Castro repeated for the camera his earlier comments that his
recovery would be ''prolonged and not exempt of risk'' and ominously
added that he had ``no fear of what might happen.''

He mocked reports that he had died.

''Now let's see what they say. Now they'll have to resuscitate me,
huh?'' Castro said in the video. ``They're making fools of themselves.''

Other governments also believe that Castro has cancer. The Miami Herald
recently reported that one Latin American intelligence agency believes
Castro has cancer and that doctors were keeping his public appearances
to a minimum to reduce any chances of infection.

But U.S. officials apparently do not know the exact nature of Castro's
cancer. The Associated Press, citing U.S. and Defense Department
officials, reported Sunday that the Cuban leader has cancer of the
stomach, pancreas or colon.

The report says the U.S. officials believe Castro may not last through
2007, and would live up to 18 months if he undergoes chemotherapy, and
three to eight months without it.

GUARDED PREDICTIONS

Periodically, Cuban officials issue reassuring statements about Castro,
although the recent pronouncements have become more guarded.

Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, in an interview with the AP last
week, backed away from earlier predictions that Castro would make his
first public appearance on Dec. 2 -- a delayed celebration of his Aug.
13 birthday.

According to a Radio Havana report Saturday, National Assembly President
Ricardo Alarcón said Castro ''is well'' and ``complying in a disciplined
manner with his recovery program.''

But Alarcón also said Castro's appearance on Dec. 2 ``will be
conditioned to the judgment of the physicians who elaborated his
recovery program.''

Raúl Castro has made few public appearances but has given indications
that he will take a different track as leader than Fidel. His speeches
have stressed worker productivity and corruption issues rather than
echoing his brother's denunciations of U.S. imperialism, and his
government has announced a plan to study flaws in the communist system.

In public, U.S. government officials have declined to comment on
Castro's health, although State Department officials have said they
believe he will never again exercise the maximum power he once held.

One U.S. government official said there was a ''slow-motion'' succession
already under way in Cuba, with Raúl Castro at the helm, but did not
elaborate.

Castro's last public statement was Tuesday, when he congratulated
Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega -- a close ally -- for his victory in
Nicaragua's presidential election.

Miami Herald translator Renato Pérez contributed to this report.

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