hir.harvard.edu/articles/1590/
By Jaime Suchlicki (University of Miami)
Reviewed by Bart Moon
Those hoping Fidel Castro's death will set off "Springtime in Havana"
with freedom in the streets and warm relations with the United States
should forget about it, according to Dr. Suchlicki, director of Miami
University's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.
Writing for The Harvard International Review, Suchlicki concedes that
Fidel's successor, brother Raul, will face daunting challenges: popular
unrest fueled by severe rationing of foodstuffs; a woefully inadequate
electrical, transportation, and communications infrastructure; and
deteriorating sanitary and medical conditions, including cracks in the
regime's vaunted health care system. With sugar production at
depression-era levels, Cuba's economy is in a downward spiral
ameliorated only by tourism, Cuban-American remittances, and Venezuelan oil.
Suchliki nevertheless considers Cuba's dissident groups too weak to
threaten the regime because they have no access to the media, are easily
penetrated by state security, and routinely harassed by the police.
Hardened by 47 years as Minister of Defense, Raul will likely face no
popular uprising so long as he retains the support of Cuba's
well-trained armed forces, the Communist Party, and state security — the
three the pillars of Fidel's dictatorship. With current or former
officers controlling over half of Cuba's major industries and
enterprises, the armed forces would surely oppose any threat to their
comfortable relationship with Raul Castro.
Nor does Suchlicki anticipate any deviation from Fidel's anti-American
ties with Chavez, other leftist Latin American leaders, Iran, and Syria.
In his view the United States has nothing to offer Cuba economically
that is not already available elsewhere.
In sum, this article offers a pessimistic view of a post-Fidel Cuba. It
should be read by those who see the inevitable death of the dictator as
opening the door to a new and brighter future for the island and to a
fresh start for the United States in its current troubled relations with
Latin America.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2007/1012/iar/iar_postcastro.html
No comments:
Post a Comment