Cuba after Fidel Castro

Cuba after Fidel Castro

November 16, 2006

Fidel Castro the legendary Communist leader of
Cuba has been seriously ill. Everyone knows that
but is he really recovering as he is portrayed?
U-S officials now say the 80 year old Castro may
have less than a year or so to live. Based on their
interpretation of his physical condition, there is
official speculation here in Washington that Castro
may have terminal cancer of the stomach, colon,
or pancreas and even with chemotherapy may only
live another 18 months, or less. The uncertainty
was heightened when Cuba's foreign minister recently
refused to say Castro will be back at the helm of
his government by December as first predicted
by Cuban government spokesmen. In photo-s
Castro looks thin, stressed, and possible gravely
ill with inoperable cancer. His younger brother
Raul is running the government, but the entire
country thinks Castro is coming back. Next month
the whole issue revives with the public celebration of
Castro-s 80th birthday which actually took place
on August 13th. He is slated to appear but he may
be too sick to make it. The CIA says it's analysis of
videos of Castro, and his hair and other biological
samples indicates he is severely weakened and appears
headed for demise. How the CIA got his hair is a mystery,
but the American CIA has its ways. It tried to kill Castro
several times and failed. Cuba's foreign minister Felipe
Perez Roque is indicating that changes might come to
the Cuban system , as he says, at the right moment.
For Castro haters, and you can put tens of thousands
of ex patriate Cubans living in Miami in that category and
the President of the United States, George W. Bush,
the possible imminent death of the man
they despise is seen as great news. Castro has been
a thorn in the side of the United States for nearly half
a century. If he doesn't make it through 2007, there
are plans for a large state funeral attended by sympathetic
world leaders - but some say that Castro, despite his
bad luck, may survive once again to pester Washington.
It's not wishful thinking on the part of U-S officials
that Castro may be living his last days. They indicate
there is now hard evidence the man could very well
be dead in a few months. If so, a transition to a Cuban
style Democracy may also come in 2007. U-S Secretary
of State Condoleeza Rice has said the Bush administration
will push for democratization once Castro is gone and
there is a plan sitting on the desk of a highly placed
Bush administration official to lift some economic
sanctions on the island nation if whoever rules after
Castro decides to end Cuba's isolation. Raul Castro
who is seen as an ineffective leader by many, may
not last long either as disaffected Cubans, aided by
the Americans, offer carrots and sticks to persuade
a new leader to end years of punishment that has led
to an economic and political stranglehold on Havana.

For now, U-S security sources are fairly certain that
the 47 years of Castro iron fisted rule is coming to
an end and that disease may do what the CIA has
wanted to do for decades, put Fidel Castro out of
power. Castro is still idealized by most of his people
and a hero and a saint - but there is growing amonst
those who hate him, a new hope that Cuba will
in the near future , finally throw off it's oppressive
political system, free thousands of political prisoners,
open Cuba to western business, and ease nearly
5 decades of tension between itself and it's big
neighbor sitting only 90 miles away.
There will be, say experts, at the very least a
struggle for leadership when Castro dies between
hardline Communists and reformers aided by
the United States. In some ways, the struggle has
already begun behind the scenes.

In the meantime, every press release about Castro's
health, every government pronouncement from
Havana, every picture of the ailing Cuban leader,
every bit of information about his medical condition
is being given exacting scrutiny by the U-S
government...the key question, if as suspected
he indeed does have terminal cancer, how long
will he live, and what happens when he is gone.

http://www.rsi.sg/english/callfromamericawithmikekellerman/view/20061116133930/1/.html