NEWS ANALYSIS
Fidel Castro's new `tropical business casual' look is a signal -- but of
what?
Fidel Castro, known for being deliberate with his image, might be
signaling new health with his new look -- but his motive is the source
of much speculation.
BY JUAN O. TAMAYO
jtamayo@ElNuevoHerald.com
What does it mean when Fidel Castro, known for carefully managing his
image, appears in recent photos wearing not his usual track suits but
shirts that one observer called ``tropical business casual.''
Perhaps nothing, Cuba analysts say. But perhaps, they add almost in the
same breath, Castro is signaling that he's done rehabilitating from his
health crisis and is ready to wield more influence over Cuba affairs.
Truth is, no one really knows, outside of a handful of very senior
officials in Havana. But that has not stopped Cuba-watchers from
speculating about Castro's possible return to a much move active and
powerful role in the island's future.
``He is the most aggressive back-seat driver in the world . . . and
could grab the wheel at any time'' from his brother Raúl Castro, said
Dan Erikson, a Cuba expert at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in
Washington.
Recent images of the 83-year-old Castro show him looking healthier than
at any time in many years. Photographs show he has regained some weight,
and he appears to speak cogently in a 24-minute video of a recent
meeting with Venezuelan university graduates. He's also been unusually
busy writing his columns, known as reflections, and meeting with foreign
visitors, from heads of state to the U.S. Congressional Black Caucus.
Castro has made no public appearances since undergoing a
still-unexplained emergency surgery in 2006 that forced him to hand over
some of his powers to Raúl. But he has clearly retained much of his
influence, and now his curious shift to dressy, short-sleeved shirts has
raised questions about his future plans.
THROUGH THE YEARS
Emilio Ichikawa, a Miami essayist who left Cuba in 2000, said the new
shirts would be meaningless if one believes that they reflect ``the
total improvisation that marks Cuban society.'' But he doesn't think so.
``If the premise is that his images are millimetrically planned -- and I
believe it -- then you have to do a thorough analysis.''
The Castro of the early 1960s wore olive green combat uniforms, Ichikawa
noted. As his rule grew institutionalized in the 1970s and 1980s, he
favored more formal military uniforms, though still olive green. In
1992, as Cuba opened itself to foreign investments, he occasionally
donned blue suits. And after surgery in 2006, he was shown in track
suits in the red, white and blue colors of the Cuban flag.
Ichikawa noted the irony that Castro at first always wore track suits
with the Adidas brand, but later was seen in some photos wearing the
Puma brand -- athletic-wear powerhouses started by rival brothers in
Germany.
And now the shift to the shirts that Erikson called ``tropical business
casual'' -- one that seemedwhite linen, another blue with white lines --
signal that his health has improved and he's ready to become more
active, analysts told El Nuevo Herald.
``The athletic wear signaled that he was doing his exercises, doing his
rehabilitation,'' said Max Lesnik, a Cuban journalist in Miami who
travels often to Havana. ``Now, his civilian clothes mean that he's
returning to more activities -- but not to power. I don't think so.''
Ichikawa and Erikson agreed that the dressy shirts may signal that
Castro is done with his exercises and recuperation, but they are less
certain that Castro would stop short of a full return to power.
``To me, he looks better than before he got sick in 2006,'' said
Ichikawa. ``He could become more visible. Maybe an appearance in the
Palace of Conventions (where the national legislature meets). That would
be spectacular. Maybe a public appearance in case of a natural
catastrophe, or if Raúl were to die.''
Erikson said that whatever Fidel Castro does from now on, his improved
health likely will impact Raúl Castro's efforts to reform a highly
centralized and inefficient economy as well as President Barack Obama's
efforts to improve relations.
``This is not a situation that anyone anticipated in 2006,'' he said
from Washington. ``Castro has carved out a much more sustained presence
in Cuban politics than anyone expected.''
CALCULATIONS
After Castro underwent surgery, many analysts argued that the more
pragmatic Raúl Castro had seamlessly assumed control of the government
and would soon embrace significant political reforms.
``But if Raúl is truly more pragmatic, he's been unable to demonstrate
that,'' Erikson said. ``Was that a miscalculation about Raúl, or does
Fidel remain a blocking factor that may grow stronger as his health
improves?''
As for Obama's efforts to engage Cuba, he added, Fidel's increased
activity ``complicates everything. It makes the Cuba situation not clear
at all -- who is your negotiating partner, Fidel or Raúl?''
``Fidel has long been extremely skeptical of rapprochement with the
U.S.,'' Erikson said. ``It's not something he's likely to push for.''
Miami radio and TV personality Ninoska Pérez Castellón agreed Castro
looks healthy these days but said she's not convinced that he's all that
sharp mentally and that the images were likely for domestic consumption.
To Cuba's rulers, she said, ``a Fidel alive represents stability. To
them, the images are just a guarantee that Fidel is still here, that
we're fine, that we're good.''
Fidel Castro's new `tropical business casual' look is a signal -- but of
what? - Cuba - MiamiHerald.com (12 September 2009)
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/cuba/story/1229559.html
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