Cuba: When Will It Happen?
May 10, 2007
Speculation on how the island will deal with the death of its strongman
is likely devoid of reality.
Gabriela Perdomo - Many people expect the imminent demise of Fidel
Castro to change the face of Cuba in a rather spectacular way. But some
analysts are noting now that the island is already undergoing its
transition towards a different society. In other words, change might
come to Cuba in a less TV-friendly way than thought.
Saying that Cuba is a unique society is an understatement. Living under
Castro's rule since 1959, Cuban society has strong ideological
components that will very much likely carry on after Castro's departure.
The entire adult population and the new generations have learned from
the same discourse through a standardized and effective national
education system, and even if words like "revolution" might start fading
away soon, values such as securing human dignity through universal
health care and literacy are part of every Cuban's identity.
For this reason, it is hard to imagine Cubans will dramatically turn
away from their lifestyle the day Castro dies. A Gallup study conducted
in September 2006 found that more than seven-in-ten urban Cubans
describe themselves as "fair" and "egalitarian" people. Almost
four-in-five express satisfaction with their community schools, 96 per
cent agree that health care is accessible to anyone regardless of
economic status, and 74 per cent say they are confident in the country's
health care system.
Clearly, this does not mean Cubans are entirely happy with the status
quo. The same Gallup study found up to 40 per cent of respondents
disapprove of the country's leadership.
Castro is recovering from health problems that pushed him to hand power
temporarily to his brother Raúl in late July last year. Following alarms
about his possible sudden death, he took the backstage for a few months
but is now actively participating in political matters again, if not
entirely in public yet. The leader's partial resignation last year was
expected to cause major changes, and announce the advent of a new era
for Cuba. However, his brother's governing style has served, if
anything, to strengthen the Castro system and ideologies in Cuba. Raúl,
who is only a couple of years younger than his brother, is reportedly
working towards preparing the new generations to govern Cuba once the
brothers are out of the picture.
Analysts tend to speculate on what will happen to the complex communist
experiment that is Cuba when Castro dies, but basing their thoughts on
what Washington will do. Mainly, because it is hard to know what Cubans
are themselves thinking and instead is easy to speculate on how the
White House will react to the news. The Gallup study lends credibility
to the idea that Cubans will reject any leadership that may put at risk
the core values of the island's socialist revolution. Contrary to what
many open-market enthusiasts may think, it will take years, maybe
generations, before the majority of Cubans appreciate private property
and liberal values if that means they have to renounce to the protection
of the State regarding basic human needs.
However, the Gallup study also shows Cubans are not entirely averse to
opening up to trade with countries having different political systems to
theirs. To the question "If Cuba wanted to increase its commercial
relations with one other country, what country would be the ideal
partner for Cuba?", the United States ranked first, mentioned by 44 per
cent of respondents, while China and Venezuela were low on the list with
17 and 15 per cent respectively. This is an interesting point, given the
fact that socialist-driven Venezuela and communist China are Cuba's
largest trading partners right now. For some reason, Cubans seem more
eager to do business with their long-time foe than with their current
allies. Now, the question is whether Washington will ever agree to lift
the four-decade long embargo on Cuba even if the administration is not
radically transformed after Castro's death.
No matter how much speculation goes on this matter, the fact is sooner
or later Fidel Castro and his brother will be gone. Many people predict
there will be a day when Cuba's doors magically will open, thousands
will flee to the United States, and others will go back from Miami to
buy land with the savings of their American lifetime and resettle in
their home country. At least this is what they think in the U.S., where
the Defence Department announced last week it has hired a Florida
company to build a temporary complex in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where
apparently potential migrants could be contained in the case of a
massive exodus.
In any case, those pondering how Cuba will look like in the future
should keep two things in mind: first, Castro is recovering and might
even take power again. Second, his long recovery has given the entire
country time to prepare for the future. And the Cuban people's capacity
to deal with this transition should not be underestimated.
http://www.angus-reid.com/analysis/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15690
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