By Rodrigo Acuña - posted Wednesday, 9 May 2007
Fidel Castro's non-appearance at this year's May Day rally confirms
that, while the Cuban leader may have resumed some of his former duties,
the "bearded one" is still quite frail.
Even if, in the next few days, weeks or even months, Castro makes a
return as Cuban Head of State, many observers agree that he will
drastically reduce his responsibilities and take on the lifestyle of an
emeritus professor.
Castro's continuing stream of editorials indicate that, as long as his
memory and body still respond to his will, the old rebel does not intend
to move.
Indeed, many respected Cubanophiles believe that, although the
post-Fidel era is now well underway (proving that the Cuban Revolution
is bigger than just one man) the changes in the coming months are
certainly not the ones that the Bush Administration and many in Miami
have long yearned for.
Having lived under his brother's colossal shadow, the younger Castro,
Raúl, in recent months has spoken out against corruption and offered the
US an olive branch as long as the "resolution is based on the principle
of equality, reciprocity, non-interference and mutual respect".
Traditionally viewed as a hardliner, Raúl Castro has recently developed
a reputation as a pragmatist and leader who wants to take greater
measures to improve Cubans' lives. At the end of 2006, Marc Frank, in an
article for Reuters, wrote that "Raúl Castro [has] expressed frustration
with bureaucracy, demanded answers to declining food output, urged
Cuba's press to be more critical and authorised a study of socialist
property relations".
Whether Raúl is genuinely committed to these reforms remains to be seen,
but even Brian Latell - a staunch critic of Havana and a former top Cuba
analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) - has conceded that the
younger Castro has been proceeding in a much bolder manner than
expected, encouraging debate throughout the country and requesting
university students to "fearlessly" discuss the island's problems.
Other, even younger Castro blood may indeed take up the call. Daughter
of Raúl and the legendary guerrilla Vilma Espín , Mariela Castro is the
Director of the National Sex Education Centre (Cenesex) and is a figure
to watch in the future, according to Latin American analyst Richard Gott.
Speaking to Tom Fawthrop for The Christian Science Monitor last
December, Mariela Castro conceded that bigoted attitudes towards
homosexuals still exist among police - a situation in which she has
personally intervened. She also stated:
We have many contradictions in Cuba … [but] we need to experiment and to
test what really works, to make public ownership more effective, rather
than simply adopting wholesale free-market reforms.
But, even though Mariela has caught the international media's eye, it
remains to be seen if she is appointed to a key position within a future
(post-Fidel) Cuban Government.
One man who already holds much power is 55-year-old Carlos Lage. Noted
for riding his bicycle to work, Lage, a trained pediatrician, is
currently Executive Secretary of Cuba's Council of Ministers and is
often described as the island's de facto Prime Minister. Having guided
Cuba during the "special period" when it lost up to 80 per cent of its
trade with the former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc countries, Lage is
also credited as having successfully negotiated a trade deal with
Caracas which sees Cuban doctors work in Venezuela's slums in return for
affordable oil.
For many Cubans, Lage is the preferred option for the leadership and is
seen as a man who may also move Cuba towards being a more open society.
While there is some diversity of opinion (and the situation is slowly
improving), it is still a fact that there are "boundaries" that are best
not crossed by journalists, authors and artists. The absence of a
diversified media in Cuba highlights the island's serious need for
reform. Watch an episode of Round Table - the top political program on
Cuban TV - and you will hear views which only reinforce the status quo.
(A more appropriate name for the program might be the Square Table.)
One man who has dared to step on a few toes is the country's Minister
for Culture, writer Abel Prieto. Pushing for further liberalisation of
cultural expression, Abel is a rare example of a Cuban who has had the
courage to question Castro's judgment. After Prieto had been blamed for
the large number of artists leaving the country, he defended himself
against the charges, and "millions watched as their supreme leader
accepted his error and apologised to Abel Prieto," live on State
television, according to Tom Fawthrop.
Prieto, according to Gott, is someone to watch in future years, as is
the young Foreign Affairs Minister Felipe Pérez Roque. Compared to many
older Government figures - some of whom are quite bland - Roque's
passion in attacking the US economic blockade against Cuba and his sharp
tongue at the United Nations are refreshing.
The next generation of political leaders will clearly be important, but
the key factor in the survival (or otherwise) of the Cuban Revolution
after Fidel shuffles off the podium will depend on the Cuban people.
Many young Cubans are frustrated with corrupt Communist Party
bureaucrats, the lack of free speech, and the poverty of the island -
despite the fact that they have a much better deal than most in the
slums of Latin America.
According to Julia Sweig in "Fidel's Final Victory" - one of the best
essays on Cuba published in the journal Foreign Affairs - what US policy
has fundamentally failed to accept is that:
Cuba is far from a multi-Party democracy, but it is a functioning
country with highly opinionated citizens where locally elected officials
(albeit all from one Party) worry about issues such as garbage
collection, public transportation, employment, education, health care,
and safety. Although plagued by worsening corruption, Cuban institutions
are staffed by an educated civil service, battle-tested military
officers, a capable diplomatic corps, and a skilled work force. Cuban
citizens are highly literate, cosmopolitan, endlessly entrepreneurial,
and by global standards quite healthy.
The big question is can Cubans be optimistic about the future? From the
perspective of Ignacio Ramonet - Editor-in-chief of Le Monde
diplomatique - writing in the January/February 2007 issue of Foreign
Policy, the answer is, "Yes". Ramonet points to figures such as Cuba's
GDP growth - roughly 5 per cent a year during the last 10 years - which
is amongst the highest in Latin America.
Furthermore, as Gary Prevost - Professor of Political Science with St.
John's University - has recently argued in an edition of Commonweal
magazine the China factor has also been crucial, with the Asian giant
looking to make Cuba its platform into Latin American markets.
China's projects range from investing in potential oil reserves in the
Straits of Florida; a joint Havana-Beijing venture to produce Cuban
bio-medical products in China; and plans to build two Chinese plants to
manufacture household appliances for both Cuba and Latin America. As if
that were not enough, Prevost notes that China has also chosen Cuba as
"the place to send thousands of its young people to learn Spanish" - as
part of its overall project to expand into South and Central America.
Of course, if the Cuban leadership goes too far in its opening of the
economy and moves away form the country's strong social policies, the
island could very well become a place where corrupt bureaucrats, a
business elite and a new (although, still small) middle class enjoy the
benefits of a consumer society while most of the population are slapped
in the face with socialist propaganda and market economics.
With such a Cuba, Washington would be more than happy to do business.
In future, one can only hope the Caribbean island will reinvent itself
as a society where greater freedom of expression is allowed, further
liberalisation of the economy takes place, and yet the fundamental
aspects of the society - work, health care and education - are further
bolstered.
First published in New Matilda on May 2, 2007.
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