Wed Aug 11, 2010 8:32pm GMT
* Fidel Castro turns 84 on Friday, out of seclusion
* Appearances, nuclear warnings raise role questions
* Most analysts don't see him fully back in government
By Marc Frank
HAVANA, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Former Cuban President Fidel Castro turns 84
on Friday, back in the limelight with a barrage of public appearances
and nuclear war prophecies that raise questions about his influence on
the socialist-ruled island.
But opinions are divided about whether his flurry of appearances since
July 7, breaking four years of seclusion after a 2006 illness, will help
or hinder prospects for change in one of the world's last one-party
communist states.
For the last six weeks, Cubans have gaped and foreign diplomats and
analysts scratched their heads as the historic leader of the revolution
emerged from a long period in the shadows to preach dire warnings of a
nuclear apocalypse to local economists, diplomats, intellectuals and
lawmakers.
Castro in 2008 formally handed over the Cuban presidency to his younger
brother, Raul Castro, who is 79, but he retains his post as first
secretary of the powerful Cuban Communist Party.
Before the latest appearances, intestinal surgery in 2006 and illness
reduced his sightings to glimpses in photos and videos meeting guests at
home, and to a stream of written essays, mainly on world affairs,
published by state media.
Images of a relatively healthy and lucid Castro dressed in his trademark
military olive green flashed across world TV screens on Saturday when he
read a short live speech before the National Assembly, diplomatic corps
and foreign journalists.
Castro called on U.S. President Barack Obama to avert a nuclear war by
not enforcing U.N. sanctions aimed at controlling Iran's nuclear
activities through inspection of Iranian cargo ships. He asserts Tehran
would respond to such an inspection attempt by sinking the U.S. fleet,
triggering a conflict he earnestly urges world leaders to avoid.
These headline-grabbing utterances have stolen the spotlight from his
more low-key brother Raul, causing many to ask who is calling the shots
in Cuba's secretive leadership.
"There has been much speculation as to what Fidel Castro is up to. Some
speculate that he and his brother Raul have divided tasks and duties:
Raul will handle domestic affairs, Fidel foreign policy. But that seems
most unlikely," said Wayne Smith, a former U.S. diplomat who opened the
U.S. Interests Section in Havana during the Carter administration.
One communist party cadre, who asked not to be named, said Fidel Castro
was strengthening his brother's government at a difficult moment both in
domestic and foreign policy.
JUST ADVISORY ROLE?
"Fidel's presence has two objectives: to back Raul's efforts to
modernize the economy by showing he is still very much around and
therefore approves, and to counter the negative international media
coverage we received over human rights this year by shifting attention
to the United States' two soft spots, war and the environment," the
official said.
Raul Castro's government suffered foreign condemnation earlier this year
following the hunger strike death in jail of a dissident prisoner. In a
deal last month with the Roman Catholic Church, it agreed to release 52
political prisoners.
Most observers agree Castro is in no condition to govern as he did for
nearly half a century.
In an interview on Sunday with visiting Venezuelan journalists, he
himself suggested that his role was largely advisory or consultative.
"My role is to say what is happening so that others can decide what to
do. You have to understand that the comrades (in government) are not
people I can lead by the hand, what I want is for them to think things
over," Castro said.
Castro's birthday has traditionally been a low key affair, though no one
is taking bets these days that he won't appear cutting a cake with a few
hundred children, as he sometimes did before taking ill.
Some observers fear that the elder Castro's more active presence, even
though it may not translate into direct interference, could still slow
Raul Castro's cautious efforts to revive the moribund socialist economy
by encouraging more open policy debate and more individual initiative.
Few doubt that Fidel Castro's steely "Socialism or Death" mantra put a
brake on economic reforms initiated in the 1990s.
"He does not need to strain himself with an executive role, since he
gets to give advice and who in hell is going to say 'no thanks' to his
advice," said one western businessman with interests in Cuba, who asked
not to be named.
"Everything will take longer than it otherwise would and only lowest
common denominator measures will be approved".
By and large, many Cubans have welcomed their comandante's comeback with
the respect and affection one might bestow on a wise old grandfather
home after a prolonged hospital stay.
"I don't know what impressed me more. Seeing Fidel again speaking to the
country and world, or his vision of what humanity faces," school teacher
Maria Julia Roche said in a telephone interview from Eastern Holguin
province.
But many young people in Havana were too busy enjoying their summer
vacation to pay much attention, and some opponents were openly scornful.
Cuban dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez called him "a stuttering old man
with quivering hands" in an opinion piece published by the Washington
Post. (Editing by Pascal Fletcher and Cynthia Osterman)
http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN1123409420100811?sp=true
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