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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

‘Spring’ delayed as Cuba follows China's model

'Spring' delayed as Cuba follows China's model
Pope Benedict XVI's call for 'authentic freedom' during his recent visit
to Cuba is unlikely to spur democracy. But other factors suggest
economic changes are under way, patterned after the Chinese example,
namely creating a market economy under an authoritarian, communist
political system.
Christian Science MonitorBy John Hughes | Christian Science Monitor –
Mon, Apr 9, 2012

Pope Benedict XVI's call for "authentic freedom" during his recent visit
to Cuba is unlikely to result in any early conversion to democracy.
Communism will remain an excuse for authoritarian, one-party rule in
that benighted island. A Cuban "spring," modeled on events in the Arab
world, is not about to blossom.

But if party rulers were quick to rule out any prospect of political
reform, other factors suggest economic changes are under way. They are
patterned after the Chinese example, namely creating a market economy
under a communist political system. The Cuban regime has been closely
following China's course.

OPINION: 3 reasons why China isn't overtaking the US

Raúl Castro, who succeeded his ailing brother Fidel in the presidency,
announced last year that half a million government workers would be laid
off and that the creation of small private businesses would be encouraged.

That has not happened as speedily as projected, but there is substantial
progress in shifting from an all-government-employed workforce to a
newly created private sector of small businesses.

Cuba's many small farmers now can lease unused state lands for up to 25
years to expand their production. For the first time, Cubans can now buy
and sell cars and houses. They can own mobile phones and computers,
although the government continues to restrict their access to
information from outside Cuba. Access to the Internet is difficult and
expensive.

This is a far cry from turning a tattered and forlorn state-run economy,
which Raúl Castro himself deplored for its absenteeism and corruption
and work-shirking, into a thriving free-enterprise one, but it moves in
the right direction.

It is also a welcome change for many Cubans from declining social
services in such areas as health care and education, and a new emphasis
on production and even exports.

OPINION: Even Cuba finally gets it: Capitalism works

A critical question is who will succeed Cuba's aging leadership. Raúl
Castro is 80. Fidel Castro is 85, and although he no longer takes an
active role in governing, he remains an influential oracle of the Cuban
revolution. The worst scenario would be the emergence of an Army
strongman who plunges the country into martial rule.

At the Cuban Communist Party Congress last year, the first in 14 years,
it had been anticipated that a younger and more vigorous leadership team
might be installed. But the old guard prevailed. Raúl said he regretted
the absence of replacements with "sufficient experience and maturity."
In fact, ambitious younger candidates were discouraged or sidelined.

Another uncertainty is the role being played in Cuba by Venezuela's
president, Hugo Chávez. He has succeeded the old Soviet Union as Cuba's
benefactor and principal ally, the donor of cheap oil. But Mr. Chávez
has political challenges at home and medical issues for which he has
sought help in Cuba. The long-term relationship between oil-rich
Venezuela and economically distressed Cuba is therefore in question.

For the meantime, the ruling regime in Havana is making it clear that
though careful economic reforms are in order, political ones are not.
Some dissidents were sequestered during the pope's visit and others who
requested an audience with the pope did not get one. Cuban leaders
swiftly declared that Cuba would remain a one-party communist state.

In a message more welcome to his hosts, the pope also deplored the
lengthy American embargo on trade with Cuba. But no American politician,
mindful of the substantial Cuban expatriate population in Florida, is
going to suggest a change in that policy during a presidential election
year.

OPINION: Eight ingredients for a peaceful society

And no American politician should ever suggest such a change without
getting a quid pro quo from the Cuban regime. That quid pro quo should
involve a major humanitarian shift requiring Cuba's release of political
prisoners and an end to harassment of political opponents.

John Hughes is a former editor of the Monitor.

ALSO BY THIS WRITER: The great wait of China: How long until freedom?

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