The Uncertain Future of Cuba
By Dolia Leal Francisco
HAVANA, Cuba, February (www.cubanet.org) - Most studies of the current
Cuban situation agree that in the, short-term, there will be important
changes in the country.
The people are asking if these changes will improve or worsen their
precarious situation. Really, this worry is valid, because, as the
popular saying says some things go with guitar and others go with trombone.
In diverse symposiums outside of Cuba, various academics have speculated
a lot on the matter by comparing Cuba's current problems to the events
that motivated the various transitions in other countries in the
Americas and Europe. However, the perspective that the Cubans have
about the current economic political and social conditions within their
nation differs greatly from the conclusions and proposals emerging from
the previously mentioned conferences.
The Cubans believe that the circumstances and events that unfolded in
the countries referred to are actually quite different.
In Eastern Europe, Spain, China, and even Vietnam, the "historic
generation" of founders had been replaced by various generations of new
politicians that understood the need for change. It should be
emphasized that in the case of Eastern European countries, the Soviets
were always seen as a force of occupation.
In Latin America, the changes were signaled by the facts that the
military dictatorships had made it too difficult for themselves to stay
in power.
The Cuban reality can be summed up in a few points:
1. The "historic generation" of founders has remained in the power
2. Official stagnation
3. Economic ruin
4. Generalized Corruption
5. Emigration
The country's leaders remain active and are unwilling to yield the power
to anybody. The depth of the country's economic disaster has had an
impact on the meager resources that Cuban families can manage for their
subsistence. This has an incremental impact on the level of interest in
the work being done by the state businesses that do not pay in foreign
currencies, and intensifies the disconnect between labor centers and
schools, particularly for youth.
The flow of immigrants that is a very serious problem for Cuba and the
United States at the moment is an uncontrollable. It could be
predicted that it will gradually increase to the same extent that the
economic crisis until it too is unsustainable.
Meanwhile, Fidel Castro remains in bed, but in change. General Raúl
Castro will not be able to assume real power completely. The hard line
leaders in such as situation will be opposed to any real change.
To what length will the current rulers go to maintain control over the
country? We will have to wait for the facts produced during this leap
year. The forecasts are not encouraging for anyone.
Translation courtesy of Scott Hudson from People in Need.
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