19:08 | 04/ 12/ 2007
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti international commentator Ivan Zakharchenko) - Some
Venezuelans don't like Hugo Chavez because they fear losing power and
wellbeing.
Others, on the other hand, love their president but still fear he might
go too far in his attempts to build "democratic socialism," and never
solve social problems.
It seems those who fear he may go too far have multiplied, which led to
the Venezuelan leader's defeat at last Sunday's referendum on
constitutional reform.
Chavez had put up 69 amendments to the fundamental law of the country
for consideration, including lifting all the restrictions on reelecting
the same person president, introducing the practice of appointing not
electing the heads of local administrations, declaring martial law for
an indefinite period of time, and limiting the freedom of the press.
Their adoption would have meant the proclamation of socialism in
Venezuela, the country considered to be the fourth largest supplier of
oil to the United States.
Observers note that most Venezuelans have shown that they do not share
Chavez's views, no matter how attractive his social and economic
projects could be; he wanted to cut the working day from eight to six
hours and set up public councils for the distribution of government funds.
The amendments were only supported by 49% of the referendum voters,
while 51% opposed them.
A year ago more than seven million people backed Chavez in the
presidential election, but now he has lost the support of some three
million.
True, there is the view that many failed to turn up, secure in the
knowledge that Chavez would win anyway. But this did not happen.
The 53-year-old president, who came to power in 1998 and conceded defeat
at the present referendum, explained the situation by doubts and fears
felt by the population. He also attributed it to the lack of time for
explaining the gist of the program leading to the victory of socialism.
But, analysts believe, Chavez simply overestimated his popularity in the
country.
Emil Dabagyan, a leading research fellow at the Center for Political
Studies of the Institute of Latin America, said the referendum results
are a "good barometer of the sentiment changes in Venezuelan society."
"The opposition managed to accumulate these sentiments, while the ruling
bloc began breaking up, and a shaky balance set in, with Chavez losing
support from the upper and middle classes and from the ruling camp as
well," the expert said.
Reports from Caracas say that Chavez's socialist program did have
success in the past nine years owing to his populist policies and rising
oil prices, but many of his former supporters are now disappointed with
the shortages and high prices of essential items, such as milk, eggs and
sugar. They are also dissatisfied with the growth of crime and the
president's growing personality cult. The people have finally expressed
their disagreement and reluctance to follow Chavez all the way to the
socialist future unless he satisfies their current needs.
Still, the opposition's victory at the referendum in Venezuela has not
knocked Chavez out. He still has five years in office ahead of him, and
he will make every effort to reach his goals. The opposition parties are
still weak and disunited; they do not have a leader who would be a match
for Hugo Chavez.
Moreover, he is already trying to use the results of the referendum for
his own ends making it out as an encouraging sign of a functional
democracy, and therefore the accusations of him being a dictator are
groundless and poorly argued.
Chavez's social programs, including healthcare and education, are still
popular with low-income families. The president, who is obviously a very
gifted politician, swore he would continue to build socialism and was
not going to change his plans.
The opposition, inspired by its first victory, also has time and will
have plenty of opportunities to launch an offensive. For example,
certain experts have mentioned the constitutional possibility of holding
a referendum on Chavez's early resignation. One such attempt was made in
2004, but the president won that round.
The current situation could prove different, and whatever Hugo Chavez's
political talents, Venezuela will never be a "second Cuba" in South America.
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