Cuba on hold as Castro misses birthday parade

The Sunday Times December 03, 2006

Cuba on hold as Castro misses birthday parade
Philip Domville, Havana

FIDEL CASTRO, Cuba's leader for the past 47 years, failed to attend a
birthday parade in his honour yesterday, prompting renewed speculation
that he is close to death.

A seat was reserved for him on the main podium in Revolution Square,
Havana, alongside all the top brass in the western hemisphere's last
communist country, to watch the biggest military parade Cuba has held in
decades.

Instead his brother Raul, Cuba's acting president, delivered the address
to a crowd estimated at 300,000.

Castro's absence immediately provoked questions about what is wrong with
him and whether the world's longest-serving political leader — he has
outlasted nine American presidents — can ever return to power.

Since he underwent gastric surgery to stem intestinal bleeding in July,
the 80-year-old president has not been seen in public. Occasional videos
have been released, showing him pyjama-clad and gaunt, to counter
rumours that he is already dead.

His birthday celebrations were postponed until yesterday to give him
time to recover from the operation, which US officials believe was for
terminal cancer. They have predicted since the summer that he has less
than a year to live.

Analysts immediately pointed out that if there were any realistic chance
of Castro making a comeback he would have appeared yesterday. The future
of the country is now uncertain. In an apparently conciliatory move,
Raul reiterated a call for negotiations with the United States to end
their decades-long stand-off, but emphasised that any talks must be
based on the principles of "non-interference and mutual respect".

Castro would not have made such an open call for dialogue, observers
say, though it is Cuba's official position. Raul appeared to be looking
beyond the presidency of George W Bush, adding: "We are prepared to wait
patiently for the moment when common sense takes place in the halls of
power in Washington."

At the end of his speech, Raul shouted "Viva Fidel", but said nothing
about his brother's health. Senior Cuban government figures still insist
that Castro is recuperating satisfactorily, and will be back.

"We will ask President Castro to lead us for many years to come,"
declared Carlos Lage, the country's de facto prime minister, last week.

Yesterday's celebrations, which ended up more like a wake, appeared
originally to have been planned to provide a spectacular backdrop to the
old man's return to centre stage.

The Cubans who packed into Havana's streets had not seen a display like
it in years. MiG jets flew overhead, ancient Soviet-era tanks and
missile launchers rumbled by, and schoolchildren declared their eternal
loyalty to the revolution.

It was meant to be a double celebration, not only of the birthday but
also of the anniversary of the landing of the yacht Granma, which in
1956 brought the Castro brothers, Che Guevara, and a handful of other
revolutionaries (many of whom still hold senior positions in the Cuban
government) back to Cuba from exile in Mexico. A replica of the yacht
was rolled through the streets.

The spirit of the revolution was reflected in some of the guests at
yesterday's festivities. In Havana were two of Latin America's new
left-wing leaders, Bolivia's Evo Morales and Nicaragua's president-elect
Daniel Ortega.

Castro's closest ally and main benefactor, Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan
president, could not make it as he faces elections today. He has
promised to dedicate his widely expected victory to his mentor.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2483848,00.html