Will things really change in Cuba?
Article Launched: 02/21/2008 08:37:35 AM PST
We'd celebrate the exit of Fidel Castro - were it not for the fact we've
heard such promises from him before.
Besides, no matter who is in charge in Cuba, the specter of the
81-year-old Communist dictator will remain.
Tuesday, Castro announced he would not seek re-election as president of
the politically oppressed and economically anemic island nation.
On July 31, 2006, an ailing Fidel temporarily turned over the duties of
president of the council of state, his technical title, to his brother,
Ra l.
But hopes that Ra l would be a more pragmatic leader were dimmed when
Fidel repeatedly undercut his younger sibling. In one case, Ra l spoke
about the promise of ethanol fuel for Cuba, a major producer of sugar cane.
Fidel responded by writing a letter to Cuban newspapers disparaging ethanol.
It's doubtful that Ra l would try to step far out of Fidel's shadow as
long as el caudillo is alive. It's also difficult to imagine Ra l, 76,
as much of a reformer under any circumstances. After helping Fidel seize
power in 1959, Ra l became generalissimo of the armed forces, imprisoned
political dissidents and even persecuted homosexuals.
On the "hope springs eternal" side of Ra l's ledger, some optimists
believe he might flirt
Advertisement
with free-market- oriented economic policies as long as they don't
threaten the iron rule of the Communist Party - the sort of economic but
not political liberalization now in place in China.
Ra l Castro is expected to officially succeed Fidel as president at the
Feb. 24 National Assembly meeting, though it is possible Vice President
Carlos Lage, 54, might be elevated to the top post.
Whoever takes the helm, it's time for U.S. policymakers to start
considering what our response should be in the event that Ra l or Lage
do make any conciliatory gestures to what Cubans call the colossus of
the north.
The U.S. imposed an embargo on travel and trade with Cuba shortly after
Castro began executing and imprisoning political opponents and
nationalizing U.S.-owned companies. The embargo has weakened Cuba's
economy but also provided the communist regime with a ready-made excuse
for its pathetic economic performance.
If Ra l or Lage do make a significant move toward reform - especially
one that eases political repression in Cuba - it would be appropriate to
respond by making it easier for Cuban exiles in the U.S. to visit their
families and send remittances to relatives on the island.
No comments:
Post a Comment