Transition in Cuba - Real or Imagined?

Transition in Cuba: Real or Imagined? / 14ymedio, Miriam Celaya
Posted on October 5, 2015

14ymedio, Miriam Celaya, Havana, 3 October 2015 — Halfway between
analysis and opinion, and not having responded clearly to his own
initial question, journalist Carlos M. Álvarez recently addressed a
controversial issue: the transition in Cuba, or to put it more
accurately, as posed by the title of his work: Can a transition in Cuba
be discussed?

In principle, we must give credit to Álvarez for his courage: to declare
that we are experiencing a transition in Cuba may be total heresy for
many, beyond their political positions, or likes or dislikes of the
government or of the opposition. In particular, it is taboo for those
who have communed with the official power; but also, as he points out,
it is something denied by many Cubans who are not at all into politics,
by a sector of the domestic opposition and by the most intransigent
groups in exile.

In the case of the opposition, the author could not, or did not, wish to
avoid the temptation to appeal to an imagined number of sources to
validate the information, which assumes that "the bulk of the
opposition" seems "caustic before a Cuba that's stretching out from a
slumber." We hope that, in future journalistic deliveries, Álvarez might
disclose statistical sources that led him to reach such a conclusion,
beyond his personal impressions. Meanwhile, allow me to question the
accuracy of his claim.

On the other hand, the transition issue is far from being a novelty
among us, at least not to a significant part of independent journalism
and to some opinion groups in Cuba and the diaspora, which have been
noting as transition signs certain perfectly perceptible changes,
ranging from the official discourse following the departure from the
public stage of ex-president F. Castro, to certain changes in the
economic and social order, or legal reforms, such as the January 2013
immigration and travel reform.

These are really inadequate changes, both in their proposals and in
their depth and scope, but, somehow, they open some loopholes to new
areas – inconceivable just a few years ago — which, in spite of the
ruling elite and their hired applauders, break through the stagnation
that characterized the previous decades.

It might have been appropriate to give the term transition a surname,
because, though in its simplest and most literal meaning, it generically
means the passage from one state or mode to a different one, in the case
of Cuba, it should be clear that we would need to state precisely that
we are facing an extremely slow economic transition, strictly controlled
by the official power, in which a self-proclaimed socialist State with a
closed and vertically centralized economy has been mutating to State
capitalism, with an economic monopoly controlled by the hands of the
same political power.

Which is to say that we in Cuba are not witnessing – at least until now
— a political transition consistent with a step towards democracy after
more than a century of autocracy, but, at most, a process of
transferring political power from the octogenarian elite to its heirs,
after having secured guaranties for its economic power, a process which,
in addition, has been demonstrating alarming signs of dynastic style, so
we would be facing a political succession rather than a transition.

And this is not something that happens "just like that," as the writer
of the referenced text seems to be asserting, but because the Castro
regime has concentrated such power and made sure of having dismantled so
deftly the entire institutional framework of Cuban civil society. The
regime has time and enough resources to even dispense quiet economic
changes according to its own interests, without social mechanisms to
question decisions made from the heart of power, let alone to push
effectively towards more profound transformations.

Returning to Adam Michnik, whose quote proves to be unfortunately out of
context and out of place in Álvarez's article, it is true that we are in
the midst of uncertain times in Cuba, but not because the power is not
"strong enough to sweep the political and economic forms emerging, and
vice versa" — which, on the contrary, it is — but because the uncertain
and primitive economic forms that have emerged were promoted by that
same power, while alternative political forms have not yet surfaced, or
are too weak and fragmented to be erected on alternatives. Such is the
peculiarity of the fragile and uncertain Cuban transition, whether we
like it or not.

Thus, answering the essential question of the article by Carlos M.
Álvarez for BBC World, a process of economic transition is taking place
in Cuba that today, due to the particular circumstances of our
socio-political reality and other factors of a historical and cultural
nature, is being promoted and controlled from the same power. So far,
it's only been confirmed that the economic scenario, on a so-called
"experimental basis," is showing clear signs of fatigue. Perhaps this
cumulative process of half-changes and simulations directed mainly at
the preservation of the political power might lead to a point where
events rush towards a new stage, as unpredictable and different as the
current one. For now, the Government continues to seize the baton
fiercely and, in the short term, we cannot catch a glimpse of a complete
and positive Cuban transition.

Translated by Norma Whiting

Source: Transition in Cuba: Real or Imagined? / 14ymedio, Miriam Celaya
| Translating Cuba -
http://translatingcuba.com/transition-in-cuba-real-or-imagined-14ymedio-miriam-celaya/