By Anthony Boadle
Reuters
HAVANA
A year and a half after he last appeared in public, the mystery of
ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro's political future could be revealed
later this month.
Will the 81-year-old Castro call it a day or will he hang on to power
until the end?
On February 24, Cuba's National Assembly legislature will meet to ratify
the country's top executive body, the Council of State. The council's
president is Cuba's head of state and the meeting could mark the end to
Castro's 49-year grip on power.
He underwent emergency intestinal surgery in July 2006 and handed over
control "temporarily" to his brother Raul. Since then, Castro has only
been seen in video and pictures looking gaunt and frail, and could now
seize the moment to formally put Raul in charge of the communist government.
Raul Castro, 76, has raised expectations of economic changes to
kick-start an inefficient state-run economy and improve the daily lot of
Cubans, and analysts say a formal transfer of power would allow him to
push through reforms.
But they are not sure it will happen.
"I think we will see the same old faces in the same old places," said a
skeptical European ambassador.
The seasoned diplomat said he expected Castro to be proclaimed president
and then cede power again on an interim basis to Raul Castro.
"The February 24 parliamentary meeting provides the perfect opportunity
for the Cuban leadership to resolve once and for all the mystery
surrounding Fidel's future. However, it is not clear they will take it,"
said Dan Erikson, an expert on Cuba at the Inter-American Dialogue think
tank in Washington.
He said many of Cuba's top leaders would no doubt like to see a formal
transfer of power to a younger generation, while Fidel Castro takes on a
more ceremonial role.
Castro has kept himself in the public mind writing prolific quantities
of articles published by Cuba's state newspapers and repeatedly
broadcast on radio and television.
In December, the bearded "Comandante" hinted that he would hang up his
gloves, writing that he had no intention of clinging to power or
standing in the way of younger leaders.
But so far, he and his brother have kept their cards close to their
chests, and kept the country guessing.
FRUSTRATED YOUTH
Castro's retirement from political office would close an era that began
when he came to power in an armed revolution in 1959 and turned Cuba
into a Soviet ally off the U.S. coast in the midst of the Cold War.
For two young actors -- Andy and Betsy -- hitching a ride to work on
Havana's Malecon seafront, Castro's place in history means little. They
are looking ahead, eager for changes to the restrictions they face on
Internet access and travel abroad.
"It's not a problem of one person. It's a whole system, and the people
who run it want to stay where they are," said Andy, who did not want to
be fully named for fear of reprisal. "They know that any change will
bring the whole edifice down."
Cuban intellectuals are more hopeful that change is possible under Raul
Castro, the long-time defense minister, as he has encouraged debate on
how to fix Cuba's problems.
"Important economic reforms will be announced in March," said a Havana
University economist who asked not to be named because he was not
authorized to speak to a foreign journalist. "But first there has to be
a political decision at the top."
The European ambassador said real change in Cuba would only come when
presidential power was handed to a younger leader, such as Vice
President Carlos Lage, the architect of reforms that opened up Cuba to
foreign investment and tourism in the 1990s.
"Raul will not move while Fidel is around. There are too many vested
interests in the political bureaucracy," he said.
Cubans who believe in the socialist system built by Castro still hope to
see him reappear, if only to say good-bye.
Julio, a former Interior Ministry employee, believes Castro will be
acclaimed president on February 24 only to decline the job on health
grounds.
"If he is fit to appear in public, he will be there, because it will be
his political good-bye," he said.
(Reporting by Anthony Boadle, Editing by Michael Christie and Kieran Murray)
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