Posted on Thu, Sep. 11, 2008
BY LIZA GROSS
lgross@MiamiHerald.com
With hurricanes Ike and Gustav plunging Cuba into what's being called
the worst economic disaster in the island's history, experts say
conditions could get bad enough to spark a new exodus.
The Red Cross' early rough estimate of total damage is $3 billion to $4
billion. Economists and veteran Cuba watchers don't believe the island
will ever completely recover, and even a partial reconstruction will
take years.
Surrounded by misery, Cubans could become more active at the grass-roots
level or abandon the country altogether, the experts say.
''We will see more emigration,'' said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the
Institute for Cuban and Cuban American Studies at the University of Miami.
Jorge Sanguinetty, an economist and president of the Association of the
Study of the Cuban Economy, agreed. The situation ''might trigger
another Mariel or Camarioca because people are desperate,'' he said.
Gustav and Ike, which struck the island Aug. 31 and Monday,
respectively, created havoc in every sector of the economy.
The housing stock sustained extensive damage. In the town of Herradura
in the western province of Pinar del Río, for example, all 600 homes
collapsed. Several key large structures, like the eastern sugar mills of
Chaparra and Delicia and the hospital Héroes de Baire on the Isle of
Youth off Cuba's southwest coast, were severely damaged.
Many crops across the island were decimated, and food warehouses were
destroyed. Hundreds of high tension electrical towers and power lines
were down and the network of the water supply is affected, raising the
possibility of epidemiological emergencies.
Guarioné Díaz, president of the Cuban American National Council, said
that, while this is probably the worst economic disaster that Cuba has
suffered in its history, there will be no way to quantify the exact
extent of the losses for months, if ever.
''It is impossible to quantify the real damage. There is no system of
costs in Cuba,'' Díaz said. ``One can get rough estimates of crop
production and compare. Perhaps tobacco is the easiest to quantify. But
the social cost, the losses in housing and the cost of rebuilding cannot
be calculated.''
However, he added, ``it is evident that hundreds of thousands are
homeless and that losses are in the hundreds of millions of dollars.''
Even before the hurricanes struck, the Cuban economy was wobbly, mainly
due to higher costs of food and fuel and its dependence on the price of
nickel, plus tourism and foreign remittances. Nickel has remained low,
and now, tourists won't be eager to rush to the devastated island.
Remittances may increase, but probably not by enough to offset the other
reductions.
These factors, added to an infrastructure that has lacked maintenance
for decades, will make recovery an uphill battle. ''They are not going
to be able to rebuild,'' Suchlicki said. ``They are going to patch up
what they have. We will see very limited reconstruction.''
Sanguinetty agreed. ``There are people who are still living in shelters
from the previous hurricanes. Probably food production and distribution
will be stabilized. They will have to recover that quickly. Housing will
take the longest, years, because this is happening on top of an existing
deficit.
''The immediate danger is spots of famine and epidemiological
emergencies,'' Sanguinetty said. ``Combined with an uncontrolled exodus,
it could have an impact on Raúl's [Castro's] ability to handle the
government. If I were Raúl I would accept assistance from abroad.''
In times of natural disaster, Cuba's Civil Defense generally takes
charge of evacuations.
Experts are mystified by the almost total absence of Raúl Castro and
question whether the hurricanes could hurt his standing as Cuba's new
leader. He formally took over as president in February, replacing older
brother Fidel Castro.
''Everyone in Cuba is amazed that there is no Raúl. There is no guidance
whatsoever in terms of reconstruction or supplies,'' Sanguinetty said.
''Typically you would see pictures of Fidel in front of a damaged
building in times of disaster or cutting cane to set an example,'' Díaz
said. ``It's very interesting.''
For Cuban writer Carlos Franqui, who lives in Puerto Rico, this is
evidence that Castro does not know how to manage a crisis.
``Evidently, he is showing he is not fit to direct the country. He did
not participate in anything going on during the hurricanes, except to
tell Fidel that some fishermen had been saved. He never learned to lead.''
It is unclear whether Raúl Castro's lack of visibility has diminished
his political standing, but for Franqui, the situation amounts to a
contest between ``a dying man and a mute.''
While Cuban media have shown Raúl Castro making calls of support to
provincial leaders and getting a call from Brazilian President Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva, there have been plenty of pictures and footage of
Vice President José Ramón Machado Ventura personally surveying damage in
Camagüey and of politburo member Esteban Lazo touring Cienfuegos.
Sanguinetty said it is impossible to know what is going on behind the
scenes, but he suggested one potential scenario is that there is tension
between Fidel and Raúl.
``Raúl may be scrambling for a response in the middle of a feud with
Fidel. That's why you have not seen him appear publicly. We know
nothing, but this situation could undermine Raúl's authority, which is
already a little bit weak.''
Susan Kaufman Purcell, director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at
the University of Miami, says the 1985 earthquake in Mexico offers an
instructive possibility.
``In terms of political implications, in Mexico the people expected the
government to come help, but it didn't. So you wound up with people at
the local level organizing themselves. As the demands for democracy in
Mexico grew, some analysts attributed this to the experiences that
Mexicans had after the earthquake, showing them what they could do for
themselves. All of a sudden leadership emerged at the grass-roots level.''
``Let's see what comes out of this crisis in Cuba.''
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