As Fidel Castro turns 80, Havana and US wonder: What happens next?

As Fidel Castro turns 80, Havana and U.S. wonder: What happens next?
By Vanessa Bauzá
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted July 10 2006

As Cuban President Fidel Castro approaches his 80th birthday next month,
the once taboo topic of succession is becoming more public in Havana.
Raul Castro, his brother and designated successor, has recently made
more public appearances and referred to a government without his
brother. Last week officials took steps to strengthen the role of the
Communist Party.

Whether Havana after Castro will simply refresh its one-party system
under new leadership or move rapidly toward major reforms similar to
those that transformed Eastern Europe in the late 1980s, the role of the
United States is uncertain. The United States may simply have to watch
warily from the sidelines while events unfold in Cuba. Ironically,
Washington's options may be limited by its own laws designed to prevent
weakening of the U.S. embargo as well as nearly half a century of
acrimonious relations.

Washington's latest attempts to undermine Cuba's succession plans are
summarized in a report expected to be released officially today. A draft
prepared by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, led by
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Cuban-American Commerce
Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez, describes "the urgency of working today
to ensure that the Cuban transition is genuine and that the Castro
regime's succession strategy does not succeed."

The draft report presumes a transition government friendly to the United
States that would seek Washington's aid as it charts a path toward
democracy. It lays out a wide range of ways in which the United States
could help rebuild infrastructure, support free elections and media and
encourage private business, among other efforts. It also recommends
spending $80 million over the next two years to bolster anti-Castro
opposition in Cuba.

The draft describes the United States as assisting -- not directing -- a
transition. Cuban officials nonetheless were outraged by its
recommendations. In Havana last week , National Assembly President
Ricardo Alarcón called the report a "true threat of aggression" and its
recommendations "sinister pretenses" aimed at regime change.

Observers said Cuba's government is now in a better position to weather
Washington's economic pressures brought about by the Commission's first
report, released in 2004. Among them were further limits on the flow of
hard currency to Cuba from exiles living in the United States. Since
then Cuba has strengthened its economy largely through strategic
alliances with Venezuela, which supplies hefty oil shipments at
preferential terms, and China, which has provided trade credits.

"I think [Castro] is trying to leave behind a country where the party is
strong, the social programs are working and the economy is put back on
solid footing through partnerships with Venezuela, China and many
others," said Philip Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute,
a Virginia-based think tank.

Some signs indicate a transfer of power from Castro to his 75-year-old
brother has begun. Raul Castro has over the past several months
attempted to reassert the authority of the Communist Party.

"Only the Communist Party as the institution that unites the
revolutionary vanguard ... can be the worthy heir of the trust deposited
by the people in their leader," Raul Castro said in June.

Cuba's official media announced last week that the Communist Party has
resurrected an executive council designed to implement party policies.
The council will be led by the Castro brothers and includes 10 other
members, including longtime party stalwarts and younger leaders in their
50s.

Though not a charismatic public speaker capable of swaying the masses,
Raul Castro has indicated he would lead a government ruled by
"collective leadership," said Brian Latell, former national intelligence
officer for Latin America at the CIA and author of After Fidel: The
Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader.

"Raul already has begun to systematically consolidate his power over the
military while asserting influence over the economy and taking a central
role in the Communist Party," Latell said. "Raul always has been the
main organizer in the regime."

While predicting a relatively smooth succession, Latell said some signs
point to "the possibility for significant popular disturbances" after
Castro's death. These include the Cuban government's candid
acknowledgment that as many as 2.5 million younger Cubans have suffered
economic deprivations to the point where they may not believe in the
Castro brothers' revolution.

"But I'm not willing to say Cubans will rush to the streets when Fidel
dies," Latell added.

U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, who believes the Bush
administration is on the right track on Cuba policy, said the United
States must stand by the embargo and refuse to normalize relations with
Cuba until it meets conditions in U.S. law. These conditions, which he
injected into what is known as the Helms-Burton law, include moving
toward free elections and releasing political prisoners.

He said Cuba would rapidly transform itself through internal pressures,
intensified by the temptation of U.S. aid and economic sustenance.

"If we bail them out unilaterally, we will have sent billions in tourism
and financing in exchange for nothing," Diaz-Balart said. "Then the
regime theoretically could survive beyond the life of the dictator.''

Other Cuba watchers contend that these very conditions built into U.S.
law could tie the hands of U.S. officials during a Cuban transition,
especially if U.S. officials insist on trying to return confiscated
property to Americans.

"What we should do is quietly watch and wait, because the heirs to Fidel
are going to be anxious," said William LeoGrande, dean of public affairs
and a longtime Cuba scholar at American University in Washington. "They
will be uncertain how much legitimacy they have ... They will be worried
about the U.S. trying to take advantage of their difficulties. It would
be in best interests of the U.S. if the successors feel confident enough
and safe enough to actually open up the economy."

Sun-Sentinel wire services contributed to this report.

William E. Gibson can be reached at wgibson@tribune.com or 202-824-8256.

Vanessa Bauzá can be reached at vbauza@sun-sentinel.com or 954-356-4514.

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