Cuba looks past Raúl for next leader

Cuba looks past Raúl for next leader
By Marc Frank in Havana
Published: January 23 2007 19:24 | Last updated: January 23 2007 19:24

Fidel Castro may be knocking at death's door after three failed
operations, as reported by the Spanish paper El País, or he may be
"slowly recovering", as a Spanish doctor who examined him in December
insists, but the line in Cuba remains "stay the course", even as a
change of leadership is being prepared.

"Continuity" is the word José Luis Rodríguez, the economy and planning
minister, emphasises when asked about economic policy. "Continuity" is
the word Carlos Lage, the vice-president, insists on when referring to
the political situation.

More often than not, official propaganda photographs now show the
president and his brother Raúl – standing in for him for the past six
months – together, or the two of them leading bearded rebels in the
mountains.

"Viva Fidel, Viva Raúl" proclaim the posters in shop windows, as if to
say nothing really has changed. A recent cartoon on the front page of
the usually humourless Cuban Communist party daily, Granma, showed a
pyjama-clad arm and hand holding a telephone, from which a voice said,
"At your orders, Comandante", a lampoon difficult to imagine if Mr
Castro's health were declining further.

"El Comandante has had no new setbacks since the Spanish doctor visited
and in fact he is gradually imp­roving," an official who has proved
accurate on Mr Castro's general condition in the past said, asking not
to be identified.

Western governments agree the secrecy around Mr Castro's health does not
really matter any more, as a rem­arkably smooth transfer of daily
government to the younger Castro has already taken place amid a public
calm just as remarkable.

Raúl Castro has consolidated his power. In a series of year-end public
appearances he demanded more accountability and fewer excuses from
functionaries and focused a parliament discussion on the main complaints
of the public – housing, transport, food and low state salaries –
without once lambasting "the new rich" or other scapegoats for the
state's inefficiency, as his brother almost certainly would have.

"Thanks largely to Venezuela and China, Cuban macro-economics is, for
the most part, doing much better. At the same time there is a sense of
urgency to focus on some of the most demanding issues affecting the
daily lives of people that was not there before, when only big projects
would receive the proper attention," says Domingo Amuchastegui, a former
Cuban intelligence officer who defected in the early 1990s and now
teaches in Florida. "But Raúl is 75," says Mr Amuch­astegui. "The real
question is who comes next."

The Communist party is preparing a congress for later this year or early
in 2008, party insiders report. Elections for a new national assembly,
which in turn picks a Council of State that names the president and
first vice-president, are scheduled for 2008.

Both events should burn off some of the fog over Cuba's immediate
future. The party congress is the most important political event in a
country where all other parties are banned and where the constitution
says it guides policy. It elects a new political bureau, which in turn
names a first and second secretary for at least the following five years.

The vast majority of party, government and military leaders are in their
40s and 50s. No one is certain whether a new "strongman" or a more
collective leadership will emerge, or if a power struggle ensues for
leadership of Cuba's younger generations born and bread under Fidel, let
alone what new policies will develop.

But just in case the 70 per cent of Cubans born after the revolution
forget their origins, these days party members are studying a tract on
the most distinguishing traits of Fidel Castro.

The Financial Times - 2007

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4fbb9076-ab15-11db-b5db-0000779e2340.html