OUR OPINION: TOO SOON TO TELL WHERE CUBA'S CHANGES WILL LEAD
Posted on Thu, Apr. 03, 2008
Change is happening in Cuba, but its impact is still uncertain. Under
Raúl Castro, the government is lifting some old prohibitions. If they
can afford it, ordinary Cubans can now buy what could be sold only to
foreigners and top government officials: computers, cellphones,
microwaves and other appliances. Cubans may also stay in luxury hotels
and rent cars, heretofore prohibited by a hated ban known as ''tourism
apartheid.'' Agricultural reforms might improve the food supply.
No political reforms
Make no mistake. This isn't a shift to a free-market economy by any
stretch. Increasing sales of imported consumer goods will not put more
money in the pockets of most Cubans. It will enrich government coffers.
There is no sign the government is interested in political reforms such
as allowing free speech or opposition political parties. Still, small
changes could inspire larger ones. Once people sense the possibility,
the thirst for more change can grow.
It is too soon to gauge the true impact. The newly available goods are
expensive and must be paid in hard currency. One night at a Havana hotel
could cost $200, an average year's salary. The cheapest cellphone sells
for $64, and starting the service costs $120. Though the ban ended,
computers were not widely available this week.
Nevertheless, some Cubans lined up to buy DVD players and electric motor
scooters. Many window-shopped, others bought goods. Cubans also lined up
to buy cellphones last week. So some do have disposable income. Despite
low wages, Cubans get dollars from remittances and tourism jobs. They
get dollars from trading in the robust black market, too. Officially,
even Cubans who can't afford hotel rooms in Varadero resorts will be
allowed on the beaches. We will see what happens in practice.
Some critics suggest the changes are intended to lessen Cubans' desires
for greater political and economic freedoms. Change, however, can
trigger unintended consequences. Some, particularly youths, will find
ways to use cellphones and computers to defy the government censors and
Internet filters. For others, seeing goods they can't afford will lead
to more discontent.
Limits on travel
For five decades Cuba has dictated what Cubans buy, say, study and do
for a living. It has determined where they live and travel. Last year,
Raúl Castro began critiques of government policy, albeit within the
revolution. Cubans have bitterly complained about their low wages.
Equally hated are limits on foreign travel. Bans on private property and
free enterprise are being questioned.
The expectations for more change could be rising. What comes next is
unknown. More certain is that the desire for a better future is not
easily contained.
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/story/480862.html
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