Engage with Cuba

Engage with Cuba

Published: January 20 2008 18:32 | Last updated: January 20 2008 18:32

Cubans did not enjoy genuine democratic freedoms when they voted in
Sunday's legislative elections, for which 614 candidates – all members
of the ruling Communist party – contested 614 seats.

But the election, which kicks off a process in which new executive
authorities will be selected, is further evidence that an increasingly
stable Cuba is successfully preparing for life without its charismatic
but frail leader, the 81-year old Fidel Castro. And it underlines the
need for the world to engage with Cuba, highlighting the ineffectiveness
of the longstanding US embargo.
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Ironically, Fidel Castro ran – and was certain to be elected – as a
deputy on Sunday. But his recent statements indicate that he will play a
far less active role in daily government. He seems likely to give up
permanently many of the responsibilities he handed over temporarily to
his brother Raúl following stomach surgery 18 months ago.

Fidel Castro's physical decline increases the likelihood that the
country could become more pragmatic in economic policy. As head of the
army, Raúl Castro has always been seen as a more practical figure than
his older brother. Economic stability, engendered by Venezuelan and
Chinese backing and higher commodity prices, has encouraged the acting
president to promote more open discussion of the shortages and
inefficiencies that make life for Cubans so difficult.

There is, therefore, a chance that the new legislators, who will elect a
31-member council of state and new vice-president next month, will be
more innovative than their predecessors. Cuba, for example, could allow
small farmers greater independence along the lines of experiments last
seen in the 1990s.

US policy, however, continues to mistakenly assume that Fidel Castro's
decline will usher in a period of social and political upheaval. Its
trade embargo is counter-productive, serving as a focus for anti-US
sentiment and reinforcing hardline opponents of change.

By contrast, engagement could embolden moderate reformers, reduce Cuban
dependence on the radical government of Venezuela and may even help
foster greater political openness. South America's most influential
country, Brazil, has shown the way forward. Last week, its moderate
leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, offered $1bn in loans,
and its oil company Petrobras is negotiating investment contracts.

It is too late for the Bush presidency to change course but a new and
more effective policy based on Cuban realities ought to be high on the
agenda of the next US president.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b75de1a-c785-11dc-a0b4-0000779fd2ac.html