Cuba - Communism, Contradiction and Monumental Change

Cuba: Communism, Contradiction and Monumental Change
Analysis JUNE 5, 2016 | 13:01 GMT
By Lynn Wise

Cuba is embarking on a new era, and the excitement is palpable in the
thick Caribbean air. Last year, the United States — Cuba's longtime
political nemesis — restored full diplomatic relations with the island
nation. Soon, Washington could lift the embargo it has held over the
country for more than half a century. Change is coming quickly, and with
it, tourists.

A Fateful Flight

Tourism wasn't always contrary to Cuba's revolutionary goals. In October
1959, Fidel Castro, leader of the soon-to-be Communist state, hosted a
major tourism convention in Havana after a trip to the United States,
during which President Dwight D. Eisenhower refused to meet with him.
Castro had convinced the American Society of Travel Agents to hold their
annual meeting in Cuba's capital. To kick off the conference, he even
delivered a speech in front of Havana's ritzy Hilton hotel.

Later that day, however, a WWII-era B-25 bomber flew low over Havana,
dropping leaflets on the city in protest of Castro's leadership and, in
effect, redirecting the course of Cuba's history. A Cuban dissident who
had been living in Florida piloted the plane, but Castro blamed the
United States, maintaining that Washington was at least complicit in the
act, if not directly responsible for it.

At that moment, the unease between the United States and Cuba, which had
been rising steadily since Castro assumed power in February 1959,
reached critical mass. Until then, Castro had been trying to win
Washington's favor, swearing repeatedly that he was not a Communist. But
the new leader divided opinions in the United States. The CIA was
already conspiring to overthrow Castro through several elaborate plots,
one of which even involved engaging mob leaders to kill him. Other U.S.
leaders advocated a more measured strategy, arguing that with U.S.
support, Castro could usher in the democratic transition that the island
so desperately needed. After the pamphleting incident, Castro stopped
trying to please the United States and turned resolutely toward the
Soviet Union, forfeiting what U.S. support he had once had. A
tit-for-tat escalation characterized the following years and culminated
in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

Fading Enmity

In time, the tension fizzled. For the past several decades, the United
States has maintained a passive but disapproving attitude toward Cuba in
hopes that Castro would eventually condemn himself to failure. But he
endured, beyond even the collapse of the Soviet Union, and ceded power
to his brother, Raul Castro, only in 2006 over health concerns. The
Castro administration owes its longevity in large part to brutal
authoritarianism — and a geography that lends itself to such governance.
At the same time, Cuba's dumb economic luck and a real sense of
resentment toward the United States among some of its citizens have also
gone a long way to keep the Castros in power.

Still, from the Cuban perspective, the island has never been fully
closed off to Americans. Despite the embargo that has prohibited U.S.
tourists from visiting Cuba since 1960, Cuban customs officials have
long welcomed U.S. nationals, even stamping Cuban visas in lieu of U.S.
passports to skirt travel restrictions. Now that the United States has
formally eased many of its restrictions, tourism to the island is
exploding. Americans and Europeans are clambering to book trips to Cuba,
eager to glimpse the culturally and historically rich country before
tourists overrun it and capitalism forever changes it. In that spirit,
Claire and I set out for Cuba.

From Cojimar, the small town just east of Havana where we stayed, we
watched busloads of wide-eyed tourists, cameras slung around their
necks, arrive from the capital each day to wander around and take in the
sights. Many of them were undoubtedly staying in the hotels or casas
particulares (private homes that are rented out) in Old Havana, where it
seems there are as many tourists as there are locals. Helicopters flew
low over the city, filming the next installment of the U.S. blockbuster
"The Fast and the Furious," while workers put the final touches on the
Chanel showroom in preparation for a controversial fashion show. Seeking
shelter from the sweltering heat, we ducked into a tourism center in Old
Havana. There, we met an American travel writer and listened to
musicians play a mix of Beatles covers and the island classics made
famous internationally by the Buena Vista Social Club. Just after we
left Cuba, Carnival Corp. sent its first cruise ship to the island.

A Capitalist Revolution

The economic changes underway in Cuba are obvious — as is the country's
continued economic uncertainty. Communism has not erased inequality and
class divisions. Instead, it has blurred them, giving the Cuban people a
shared sense of economic hardship. Havana blames the United States and
its embargo for Cuba's economic stagnation. Billboards throughout the
capital call the embargo the longest genocide in history. But they offer
only one side of the story. The Cuban government and its
capriciousness have devastated the country's economy, which has long
been open to the rest of the world. Ending the U.S. embargo on Cuba
would undoubtedly help the island's economic situation, but it would not
be the magic bullet that the Castros describe.

Even so, Cuba's economic policy is undergoing rapid and promising
changes. The Communist Party of Cuba recently announced that it would
legalize small- and medium-sized private businesses. Wi-Fi hotspots are
cropping up across the island. During our visit, we stayed in a private
home booked through the newly arrived Airbnb, and we ate alongside
tourists and Cubans alike in restaurants and cafes that could not have
existed just a few years before.

Concerns about authoritarianism and human rights abuses continue to
stall economic development and hamper tourism. But the government's
tight grip on power is less overt than I had imagined it would be. A
friend of mine who visited Cuba a decade ago during an economic downturn
described being actively separated from Cuban nationals by police
officers. We experienced none of that. Much to our surprise, we weren't
even questioned about our professional camera equipment. People seemed
to go about their daily lives undisturbed, drinking rum, smoking cigars,
visiting parks and beaches. They rode in taxis with American flags and
laminated dollars adorning the rear-view mirrors. They talked openly to
tourists. At one point, I even overheard a group of Cubans debating
politics in the plaza.

Of course, plenty of idealistic young Cubans want to immigrate to the
United States. However, most of them cite economic reasons, unlike the
droves of asylum seekers fleeing gang violence and human rights abuses
in parts of Mexico and Central America. Still, looking out at the ocean
I realized that its vastness has immensely contributed to Castro's tight
hold on power. For many Cubans, the ocean, however beautiful, must seem
stifling, a daily reminder of their physical and economic isolation.
Castro and his revolutionaries traveled the world freely, a luxury not
afforded Cuba's future leaders.

The Cuban Paradox

The Cubans I talked to had a measured view of the situation. They know
the economy is bad, but they are hopeful that it is changing for the
better. Moreover, not everyone sees emigration as an ideal solution.
Some people return to Cuba after leaving, one man told me. Every place
has its good and bad aspects, he said, acknowledging the negatives that
the revolution has brought along with the positives. His optimism is
likely easier to maintain now that the Castros are aging and transition
looms. Plus, the government constantly reminds Cubans of the pitfalls of
capitalism and the triumphs of the revolution, and the propaganda is not
entirely meritless. Despite its many problems, Cuba has escaped much of
the drug violence that plagues other parts of Latin America. It also
boasts a lower rate of economic inequality than many other Latin
American countries do and the highest literacy rate in the region.
Cuba's infant mortality rate is even lower than that of the United States.

Authoritarianism has enabled Cuba to avoid some big problems. At the
same time, it has created other challenges, the biggest of which will be
making the transition to a new government and economic system without
succumbing to the destabilizing inequality endemic in other Latin
American countries.

It is a common trope to talk about Cuba as a country stuck in the past.
But that view prevents a true understanding of the nation and of the
world in which it resides. Cuba is not a relic of some forgotten
history. Its people are well connected to the world, despite their
isolation. Cubans are proud of their government's accomplishments, even
though they've paid a harsh economic and political toll for them. Cuba's
Communist Party has brutally suppressed any meaningful opposition
emerging in the country. Even so, the absence of a massive uprising
against the Castros could also be seen as testament to Cuba's modernity:
Cubans are as individualistic as the rest of the world has become,
despite the antiquated Communist model under which they live. The modern
revolution is individual rather than collective, economic rather than
political. Under such an ideology, massive political uprising looks less
promising than it did in the past.

Though its political future is uncertain, Cuba is working to balance the
opportunities the free market presents while avoiding the specter of
socio-economic inequality. For most countries, this balance has been
difficult to achieve, if it has been achieved at all. But after decades
of political and economic repression, Cubans, it seems, are up for the
challenge.

Source: Cuba: Communism, Contradiction and Monumental Change | Stratfor
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https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/cuba-communism-contradiction-and-monumental-change