Betting Cuba’s Future on Alejandro or Mariela Castro

Betting Cuba's Future on Alejandro or Mariela Castro / Juan Juan Almeida
Posted on April 1, 2015

Juan Juan Almeida, 27 March 2015 — With the approach of the next
congress of the Cuban Communist Party, scheduled for 2016, some analysts
are adhering to a prudent logic by predicting that Alejandro Castro
Espin will be included on the list of possible successors to the Cuban
throne.

They cling to this notion with amazing aplomb. But the prospect of
Alejandro being included in any list of possible successors is likely to
dissipate even before it can happen. Very intelligent people often make
the mistake of advancing elaborate theories such as this by standing
back and looking at the surface but mistaking the spots of a Dalmatian
with those of a Holstein.

Clearly, Alejandro has managed to hone the proverbial skill of political
oratory. He acts as a government spokesperson and, what he does not
know, he makes up. His peculiar gift for being able to memorize and
recite the complete works of Lenin can be astonishing. He is one of the
most powerful people in Cuba today and has a hand in important national
decision-making. But he is forever caught between the image of a hero
and the verses of the Iliad, which ominously conflate modern-day Havana
with an epic Greek saga.

Alejandro is not a member of the Secretariat nor the Politburo nor the
Central Committee nor the National Assembly. Nor does he represent (or
claim to represent) any major social group. This is why I believe his
sister Mariela is better poised to compete for the same office.

Alejandro wrote a book, The United States: The Price of Power,
translations of which we can find in several languages. But, although
available, it remains practically invisible, having failed to garner the
respect of artists and intellectuals who, among other things, know that
the author of this indigestible work is really Juan Francisco Arias
Fernandez, also known as Paquito, his faithful squire.

Yes, Alejandro is a military man. He is also cold, calculating and
ambitious. But he lacks influence with the military's commanders. Some
of them, the oldest officers, formed their ties during the battles in
the Sierra Maestra. Others, the mid-level officers, did so during Cuba's
wars in Nicaragua, Ethiopia and/or Angola. The rest, those comfortable
in the wheeling and dealing of the marketplace of influence, belong to a
group none of whose members would consider jeopardizing a profitable
present by clinging to a past that has no future.

Vilma and Raul's son does not fit into any of the Castro categories.
Though he did pass through Angola, he did not take part in the war.
After a shooting accident during training practice in Luanda, he
returned to Havana and was decorated as though he had been wounded in
battle, something that remains a source of jokes even today.

Of course, they can handpick him. They can make him president or field
marshal. Even Raul knows that appointing Alejandro would establish a
precedent that would withstand the culture of silence and the fear of
the Cuban people. But it would amount to a slap in the face to the
intelligentsia, and would turn a hierarchical structure like the
military into a tinderbox and every general into a lighted match.

Bets are only made when the chips are on the table. To put it simply,
Alejandro is someone who will remain relevant only as long as Raul
Castro is alive.

Source: Betting Cuba's Future on Alejandro or Mariela Castro / Juan Juan
Almeida | Translating Cuba -
http://translatingcuba.com/betting-cubas-future-on-alejandro-or-mariela-castro-juan-juan-almeida/