CUBA
Moving beyond Fidel
BY MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE
MarifeliPerez-Stable.com
Is the Comandante back in the saddle? Yes, most say. Yet, that's also
the easiest and simplest answer when Cuban politics is neither. Fidel
Castro has never been first among equals. His photograph always appeared
larger than anyone else's in the Cuban Communist Party's politburo. In
the mid-1990s, Castro halted modest economic openings and later launched
a recentralization. Though many in the leadership likely disagreed,
acquiescence was their only choice.
How could he be back if hardly anyone sees him? After March's
ministerial changes, Raúl Castro finally has his own government. The
Comandante is old and physically diminished, which is probably why he
won't go public. He'd rather be remembered by the strong, imposing
physique that he enjoyed most of his life.
His power is largely symbolic now. For Raúl and the remaining historic
figures from the 1950s, the Comandante's legacy is sacrosanct. He cast a
larger shadow over Cuba than Mao over China or Stalin over the former
Soviet Union. In the early 1970s, the Chinese leadership reined Mao in
somewhat, something Cuba's was never able to do with Castro. How likely
is it that Raúl would denounce Fidel once buried as Khrushchev did with
Stalin a mere three years after his passing?
Raul's quiet moves
All the same, Raúl has taken some steps away from his brother without
saying so. He has put institutions at the center whereas the Comandante
had basically sidelined them. After a 12-year hiatus, a party congress
is scheduled for later this year. The Comandante's parallel government
of envoys who could undo decisions at his whim is no more. Though
modest, loosening economic controls, especially in agriculture,
contravene Fidel's preferences.
Since April 13, the elder Castro has written 24 reflections, a furious
pace that started after the Obama administration lifted all restrictions
on travel and remittances for family reasons. In one, he said Raúl's
offer to discuss human rights, political prisoners and press freedom had
been misinterpreted. A few days later, Raúl stated that Cuba need not
make any gestures even as he reiterated a willingness to discuss
''everything, everything, everything'' with the United States. According
to a U.S. official speaking off the record, Cuba's president had not
told the administration that he had been misinterpreted. On May 1, some
Cubans waved American flags in commemoration of what most of the world
knows as Labor Day. In another, he picked an unnecessary fight with
Mexico, claiming that the Calderón administration held the cards of the
virus close to its chest until after President Obama's visit. A PRI
deputy commented: ''Mexico hopes for clarification of whether Fidel's
reflections are shared by the people and the government of Cuba. If so,
we'd have to resort to diplomacy. If not, we'll just overlook his
reflections.'' I suspect Havana's response will be in confidence.
Obama's popularity
Untangling the knots of charisma is no easy matter. The Comandante is
evidently resisting. I'd bet that his reflections are must-read for the
party nomenclature, though most are hungry to try something new like
striving for a productive economy. By and large, Cuban leaders and
ordinary citizens yearn for better relations with Washington. Few take
Fidel's side on this issue, which is further complicated by Obama's
widespread popularity on the island.
Raúl and his inner sanctum are conservative by nature, that is, they
aren't prone to make dramatic changes quickly. After raising
expectations in 2007-2008, Cuba's old men have almost halted their slow
pace. Perhaps they are busy preparing the party congress. Then again,
the fear that going faster might lead to their downfall paralyzes them,
no matter what Fidel writes.
I don't expect the party congress to be daring. Still, it needs to move
Cuba beyond the modest measures already taken. If that's the case, it
will come from Raúl and his closest associates. Even then, the
Comandante will frown because that was not the path he was taking Cuba
before falling ill. If not, Raúl and the others will remain mired by
their own conservatism
Out of sight, out of mind: that's how ordinary Cubans approach Fidel.
They have moved on, which means that if the pace doesn't pick up, Cuba's
leaders better fasten their seat belts.
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the
Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor at Florida
International University.
Moving beyond Fidel - Other Views - MiamiHerald.com (21 May 2009)
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/other-views/story/1058390.html
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