Cuba allows 'change' only to hold on to power

INTELLIGENCE
Cuba allows 'change' only to hold on to power
Posted on Tue, Jun. 10, 2008
By CHRIS SIMMONS
Chris.Simmons@CubanIntelligence.com

The Directorate of Counterintelligence (DCI), Cuba's domestic security
force, is the most patient of Havana's intelligence services.
Historically, this patience has been a decisive factor in its success.
However, success has become a double-edged sword. Its use of the same
operational tactics, techniques and procedures has made it predictable.
Having avoided major intelligence failures that could be used to
reassess how it does business, the DCI has become operationally
complacent and unimaginative. Despite this weakness, it remains highly
effective at targeting those it views as threats to regime stability.

One of these perceived threats is Cambio (Change), a campaign by
dissidents to bring democracy to Cuba. Based on the DCI's
predictability, its course of action against Cambio will probably be as
follows: It will continue to allow Cambio's growth and development. It
will secretly monitor the effort but do nothing to cripple its spread.
While this may seem counterintuitive, it must take this approach so that
it can fully identify the potential threat and all key participants. To
attack Cambio too soon would push the campaign underground, leaving it
intact and harder to find.

The DCI has undoubtedly initiated a two-pronged attack. Its efforts
would have begun with traditional infiltration techniques: DCI officers
and agents infiltrated into the cadre of Cambio supporters. The DCI
would further expand this baseline by co-opting Cambio supporters
arrested by the security and law enforcement services. It rewards the
co-optees with early release in exchange for their future services.

Insiders become informants

Concurrently, the DCI coordinates with police and security forces to
maintain moderate pressure on Cambio. This maintains the perception that
Cambio attracts government attention and a level of harassment
consistent with the other dissident movements. It also allows more
opportunities to turn Cambio members into informants.

As years pass, the DCI will continue to infiltrate agents and officers,
some of whom will become such trusted insiders that they eventually
secure leadership positions.

During this period, Havana will continue to ''tolerate'' Cambio's
existence and enjoy the favorable media coverage that results. Then, at
the moment most politically advantageous to the regime, the government
will move in and cripple it by detaining all its senior and mid-level
leadership. Historically, such acts are timed to divert attention from a
massive government failure or to seize a political opening in which it
can avoid significant international repercussions.

During the crackdown, many DCI personnel who infiltrated the campaign
will be ''detained'' along with legitimate Cambio members. This ensures
the safety of its personnel and creates an opportunity for intelligence
collection in the most unlikely of places -- a Cuban jail. Then, having
crippled the movement, the DCI will reveal the identity of many of its
penetration agents and officers, denounce Cambio as a CIA operation and
assist in the show trials.

A small number of ''imprisoned dissidents'' will actually be DCI assets
who successfully infiltrated Cambio. These personnel will continue to
live their false identities and serve out their jail term before being
''forced'' to emigrate to the United States or another country. They
will then actively continue their intelligence careers by again
infiltrating Cambio (or perhaps another exile group).

In this fashion, the DCI members have the greatest cover of all, since
they appear to have gone to ''prison'' and were ''harassed'' by the
Cuban government.

The DCI will also leave stay-behind agents and officers in place within
the lower levels of Cambio. Having ''survived'' the crackdown, the
stay-behinds will become more trusted and rise within the organization.
So begins the second wave of infiltrations, which will progressively
spread throughout the depth and breadth of the reborn Cambio, ever ready
for the next crackdown.

The patience, detailed planning and comprehensiveness of the DCI's
targeting process means that Cambio is already doomed. The DCI's vast
resources and ample time have certainly allowed it to thoroughly
infiltrate the movement. For Cambio or any other dissident movement to
survive, it must review its security measures and remain vigilant to the
intelligence threat arrayed against it.

The DCI's successes have made it predictable and proud. The question is,
can Cambio exploit these two major operational weaknesses?

Chris Simmons is a career counterintelligence officer and an expert on
Cuban intelligence.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/cuba/story/564416.html