History will never absolve Castro
Posted on Thu, Feb. 21, 200
By CARLOS ALBERTO MONTANER
www.firmaspress.com
Fidel Castro has decided to die as former president. He can no longer
bear his infirmities. After half a century of being gloriously dressed
in olive drab, disguised as a heroic guerrilla, it is very difficult to
rule a country in a jogging suit, sitting on a rocking chair in a hospital.
The balance of these 50 years is horrendous. There is no human way that
history will absolve him. The obstacles are two million exiles,
thousands of political prisoners -- of whom almost 300 are still behind
bars -- thousands of executions, an absolute absence of freedoms, broken
families and the worst material failures in the history of Latin
American dictatorships. Almost all those long tyrannies -- Stroessner in
Paraguay, Somoza in Nicaragua, Trujillo in the Dominican Republic --
were corrupt and cruelly tormented societies, but they left behind
countries that were richer and better equipped than those they began with.
In Cuba, things have been different. As a consequence of the clumsy
governance of Fidel Castro, a pathologically capricious man, along with
the harebrained communist system imposed on the country responsible for
the island's astounding unproductivity, the five basic elements that
measure the quality of life of any society have worsened terribly --
food, housing, clothing, transportation and communications. Beyond
ideology, daily life in Cuba is an insufferable nightmare of discomfort
and shortages.
Has nothing good happened in that period? Yes. The country has 800,000
professionals, among them 65,000 good physicians, for a population of 11
million. But that fact, far from exempting Fidel Castro from blame,
incriminates him severely. Only a thoroughly incompetent ruler can keep
in poverty a society that possesses such human capital. In all corners
of the world, professionals are part of the social middle levels and
live with some degree of legitimate comfort. In Cuba, they vegetate
without any hope, amid utter poverty.
I think Gen. Raúl Castro concurs with this diagnosis and wishes to
substantially improve the lives of Cubans. Raúl does not have (as Fidel
has) an ideological vision of the social problems; his viewpoint is
practical. Before the age of 20, after a short trip to Eastern Europe
intended as revolutionary tourism, he became a communist out of his
naive admiration for the Soviet Union -- not because he read the sect's
books. He has little theoretical density, something that paradoxically
makes him more human. Raúl is closer to the manager than to the apostle,
to the administrator than to the commissar. Since 1959, he has headed
the Armed Forces, an institution that, within the general chaos
afflicting the country, functions reasonably well.
In effect, Raúl Castro will begin a cautious economic reform. What will
the changes be?
• First, more space for the self-employed workers, and the emergence of
small, family-run private enterprises that can provide the services the
state cannot furnish.
• Second, the authorization for people to freely sell or buy houses and
cars.
• Third, permission for Cubans (athletes included) to leave the country
and return.
No political reform is expected in the direction of democracy, but we
may look forward to the gradual release of the prisoners of conscience
and greater tolerance for the domestic dissidents, along with a more
open environment within the Communist Party, so the comrades may better
examine the myriad problems that afflict the country without being
persecuted. It is also probable that Raúl will cancel the ''acts of
repudiation'' -- violent pogroms against the opposition democrats -- and
renounce the climate of permanent international confrontation maintained
by his brother since his first day in power. Raúl's principal and secret
objectives are to make peace with the United States and achieve a
self-sufficient economy, without renouncing the single party.
Why? At 76, Raúl knows that he hasn't much time to revitalize the
economy and strengthen institutionality, crushed by Fidel's weight, so
the country may have a legitimate manner to transfer authority after he
leaves the stage. The last poisoned apple given to him by Fidel was the
prosthetic leadership of Hugo Chávez, along with a suggestion for the
union of the two countries. But the defeat suffered by the Venezuelan in
last December's referendum exposed the precariousness and discredit of
the Bolivarian revolution, a political mishmash even weaker than the
Cuban dictatorship. Raúl is not unaware that placing Cuba's fate in the
hands of Chávez, as Fidel wished, would be not just stupid but also a
suicidal irresponsibility.
What will Fidel Castro do from now until he dies or is totally
incapacitated? For sure, he will back the so-called Talibans -- the
Stalinist sector -- and will serve as sniper, sabotaging the reforms
with his newspaper commentaries, convinced that mankind awaits with
bated breath his expressions of supreme wisdom in order to understand
reality. That's how narcissists are, even with one foot in the grave.
©2008 Firmas Press
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