More Cubans Migrating to United States

Published: Sunday, November 25, 2007
More Cubans Migrating to United States
The number of interdictions in Florida Straits may match 2005 total.
By ALFONSO CHARDY
McCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

MIAMI | The Cuban migrant flow is approaching a milestone.

The number of interdictions in the Florida Straits may soon match or
exceed those in 2005, when the U.S. Coast Guard made the greatest number
of interceptions since the rafter crisis 13 years ago. As of Wednesday,
the number of Cuban migrants stopped by the Coast Guard was 2,938, just
14 shy of the 2005 mark.

While no mass exodus is afoot, the increased number of interdictions is
part of a gradually increasing number of Cubans leaving the island and
heading for the United States - by boat, plane, car and on foot through
the U.S.-Mexican border.

In fact, at least 3,437 more Cubans left the Communist island and
reached the United States between October 2006 and September 2007 than
during the previous 12-month period, leading some Cuban affairs analysts
to wonder whether a migration crisis is coming.

On Wednesday, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced a new
parole program for Cubans awaiting immigrant visas on the island partly
to deter the growing marine migrant flow. Cubans who have been waiting
for approved visas but have not received them will be eligible to
receive the new parole documents expected to be issued quickly.

Experts at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies recently compiled a report showing that in the
past two fiscal years, more Cubans arrived than during the entire Cuban
rafter crisis that brought 37,191 Cuban migrants, and that in the past
seven years more Cubans have arrived than during the rafter and 1980
Mariel exoduses combined.

"The arrival of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Cubans over a
short period of time is a scenario that any U.S. administration would
like to avoid at all costs," the report said. "Yet, quietly but
increasingly evident, a new mass migration out of Castro's Cuba may be
in progress."

Other Cuba observers, however, aren't convinced.

"I can't find something statistically significant in that one thousand
or two thousand or five thousand more Cubans are interdicted or arrive,"
said Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute in
Arlington, Va., who specializes in Cuban affairs and supports lifting
the Bush administration's travel restrictions to Cuba.

"It's no secret many people want to leave Cuba, but it doesn't mean that
a migration crisis is imminent. You cannot infer mood from combining
figures from different categories of immigrants. … What is going on is
accepted as normal, all around."

uncertainty

Some recently arrived migrants say they left because uncertainty about
the future increased after an ailing Fidel Castro last year ceded power
to his brother, Raul.

"People want change, that there be a democracy, but nothing seems to
change," said William Mujica, 33. "There's uncertainty."

Mujica, who arrived via the Mexican border, was picking up a work permit
at the Archdiocese of Miami's Catholic Charities Legal Services office
downtown.

Randolph McGrorty, the agency's executive director, said half the Cubans
his office helps have arrived by way of Mexico.

"Migrants crossing the border has been a trend for the last four or five
years," He said. "It has stayed pretty steady."

Mujica, who came across the border more than five months ago, left Cuba
by raft and landed on the Yucatan Peninsula, making his way to the U.S.
border.

Customs and Border Protection figures show that the majority of Cuban
migrants now cross from Mexico.

According to the UM study, between October 2005 and September 2007,
nearly 77,000 Cubans reached U.S. soil - more than twice the number
during the 1994 rafter exodus.

The UM report goes on to note that over the past seven years more Cubans
have arrived than during the combined 1980 Mariel boatlift and 1994
rafter exodus: 191,000 since 2000 versus 162,191.

However, totals in the UM report also include Cubans who have arrived
legally under a 1995 migration accord with Cuba.

The totals also factor in those who annually receive green cards under
the Cuban Adjustment Act. These include Cubans who have arrived legally
with visas from Cuba or illegally by sea, air or land through third
countries like Mexico or Canada.
Last modified: November 25. 2007 12:00AM

http://www.theledger.com/article/20071125/NEWS/711250440/1004/RSS&source=RSS