The number of interdicted Cuban migrants may soon exceed the number
stopped in 2005, the year the most interceptions had occurred since the
1994 rafter crisis.
Posted on Sat, Nov. 24, 2007
BY ALFONSO CHARDY
achardy@MiamiHerald.com
The Cuban migrant flow is approaching a milestone.
The number of interdictions in the Florida Straits may soon match or
exceed those in 2005, when the U.S. Coast Guard made the greatest number
of interceptions since the rafter crisis 13 years ago. As of Wednesday,
the number of Cuban migrants stopped by the Coast Guard was 2,938, just
14 shy of the 2005 mark.
While no mass exodus is afoot, the increased number of interdictions is
part of a gradually increasing number of Cubans leaving the island and
heading for the United States -- by boat, plane, car and on foot through
the U.S.-Mexican border.
At least 3,437 more Cubans left the Communist island and reached the
United States between October 2006 and September 2007 than during the
previous 12-month period, leading some Cuban affairs analysts to wonder
whether a migration crisis is coming.
On Wednesday, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced a new
parole program for Cubans awaiting immigrant visas on the island partly
to deter the growing marine migrant flow. Cubans who have been waiting
for approved visas but have not received them will be eligible for the
new parole documents, which are expected to be issued quickly.
Experts at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies recently compiled a report that showed in the
last two fiscal years, more Cubans arrived than during the entire Cuban
rafter crisis that brought 37,191 Cuban migrants, and in the last seven
years more Cubans have arrived than during the rafter and 1980 Mariel
exoduses combined.
`MASS MIGRATION'
''The arrival of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Cubans over a
short period of time is a scenario that any U.S. administration would
like to avoid at all costs,'' the report said. ``Yet, quietly but
increasingly evident, a new mass migration out of Castro's Cuba may be
in progress.''
Other Cuba observers, however, aren't convinced.
''I can't find something statistically significant in that 1,000 or
2,000 or 5,000 more Cubans are interdicted or arrive,'' said Phil
Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va., who
specializes in Cuban affairs and supports lifting the Bush
administration's travel restrictions to Cuba.
``It's no secret many people want to leave Cuba, but it doesn't mean
that a migration crisis is imminent. You cannot infer mood from
combining figures from different categories of immigrants . . . What is
going on is accepted as normal, all around.''
Some recently arrived migrants say they left because uncertainty
increased after an ailing Fidel Castro last year ceded power to his
brother Raúl.
''People want change, that there be a democracy but nothing seems to
change,'' said William Mujica, 33.
Mujica, who arrived via the Mexican border, was picking up a work permit
at the Archdiocese of Miami's Catholic Charities Legal Services office
downtown.
Randolph McGrorty, the agency's executive director, said half the Cubans
his office helps have arrived by way of Mexico.
''Migrants crossing the border has been a trend for the last four or
five years,'' he said. ``It has stayed pretty steady.''
Mujica, who came across the border more than five months ago, left Cuba
by raft and landed on the Yucatán Peninsula. Customs and Border
Protection figures show that the majority of Cuban migrants now cross
from Mexico.
According to the UM study, between October 2005 and September 2007,
almost 77,000 Cubans reached U.S. soil -- more than twice the number
during the 1994 rafter exodus.
The UM report notes that in the last seven years more Cubans have
arrived than during the combined 1980 Mariel boatlift and 1994 rafter
exodus: 191,000 since 2000 versus 162,191.
However, totals in the UM report also include Cubans who have arrived
legally under a 1995 migration accord with Cuba.
The totals also factor in those who annually receive green cards under
the Cuban Adjustment Act. These include Cubans who have arrived legally
with visas from Cuba or illegally, by sea, air or land through third
countries like Mexico or Canada.
Under the Cuba-U.S. migration accord, the United States is supposed to
issue at least 20,000 immigrant visas annually in Havana. But that
number periodically falls short, leading to recriminations between
Havana and Washington.
The two governments have recently traded accusations on which side is to
blame for this year's visa deficit. On Wednesday, when U.S. Citizenship
and Immigration Services announced the new parole program, officials
said that as of mid-November, at least 13,000 Cubans who had petitions
approved were still awaiting visas.
`DISILLUSIONMENT'
Jaime Suchlicki, director of the UM institute that assembled the recent
migration report, said the increase in arrivals reflects growing
''disillusionment'' with the Cuban regime.
''There is a belief that Cuba will not change rapidly and that Cuba's
economy will not improve very rapidly,'' Suchlicki said. 'One recently
arrived refugee told us, `We spent 47 years trying to build socialism,
so we don't want to build anything new again. We want to go to a society
where everything is already built.' ''
Most Cuban border-crossers reach Mexico after arriving by boat at
Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Increased traffic across the Yucatán Channel
appears to be the result of stepped-up enforcement by the U.S. Coast
Guard in the Florida Straits. U.S. officials blame much of the Cuban
migrant traffic in South Florida on smugglers.
Under the U.S. wet foot/dry foot policy, those who reach U.S. shores are
generally allowed to stay, but those caught at sea are usually returned
to the island. Those who arrive at land border crossings are generally
allowed into the country.
Cuba has urged Mexico to stem the migrant flow reaching Cancún and Isla
Mujeres.
Manuel Aguilera de la Páz, the Cuban ambassador to Mexico, told
reporters in Mexico City recently that the increase in migrants requires
a new immigration accord between Mexico and Cuba.
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