Posted on Tue, Sep. 04, 2007
BY JAIME SUCHLICKI
The first year of Gen. Raúl Castro's rule is now over, and no
significant changes have occurred in Cuba. Yet expectations remain that
the younger Castro will follow the Chinese or the Vietnamese model and
even find an accommodation with the United States.
Wrong on both counts. Despite economic difficulties, General Castro may
offer more consumer goods and food to tranquilize the Cuban population,
but no major structural reforms that would open the Cuban economy. In
his July 26 speech, he talked about more foreign investments, but
emphasized greater discipline and productivity as the road toward
improving the economy.
With Fidel alive, or even when he is dead, it would be difficult for
Raúl to reject his brother's legacy of political and economic
centralization. Raúl's legitimacy is based on being Fidel's heir. Any
major move to reject Fidel's ''teachings'' would create uncertainty
among Cuba's ruling elites -- party and military. It could also increase
instability as some would advocate rapid change, while others cling to
more-orthodox policies. Cubans could see this as an opportunity for
mobilization, demanding faster reforms. For Raúl, the uncertainties of
uncorking the genie's bottle in Cuba are greater than keeping the lid on
and moving cautiously. For the past 47 years, political considerations
have always dictated economic policies.
In his speech Raúl also offered the United States an alleged olive
branch. Yet the olive branch was surrounded by thorns. Raúl criticized
the Bush administration, emphasized that there would be no concessions
to the United States and concluded that Cuba would have to wait for the
next administration in Washington to negotiate ``our differences.''
Raúl does not seem ready to provide meaningful and irreversible
concessions for a U.S.- Cuba normalization. Like his brother in the
past, public statements are politically motivated and directed at
audiences in Cuba, the United States and Europe. Serious negotiations on
important issues are not carried out in speeches from the plaza. They
are usually carried out through the normal diplomatic avenues open to
the Cubans in Havana, Washington and the United Nations or other
countries, if they wish. These avenues have never been closed as
evidenced by the migration accord and the anti-hijacking agreement
between the United States and Cuba.
Raúl is unwilling to renounce the support and close collaboration of
countries like Venezuela, China, Iran and Russia in exchange for an
uncertain relationship with the United States. At a time that
anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America and elsewhere, Raúl's
policies are more likely to remain closer to regimes that are not
particularly friendly to the United States and that demand little from
Cuba in return for generous aid. Last year Russia provided a
$350-million credit package to Cuba to modernize its armed forces, and
Venezuela's aid to Cuba surpassed the $3 billion mark in 2006.
Raúl is no Deng Xiaoping and no friend of the United States. He had been
the longest serving minister of defense (47 years). He presided over the
worst periods of political repression and economic centralization in
Cuba and is responsible for numerous executions after he and his brother
assumed power, and some while in Mexico and the Sierra Maestra before
reaching power. Raúl has been a loyal follower and cheerleader of
Fidel's anti-American policies and military interventions in Africa and
elsewhere.
In 1962 Raúl and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev conspired to
surreptitiously introduce nuclear missiles into Cuba. Raúl supervised
the Americas Department in Cuba, approving support for terrorist,
guerrilla and revolutionary groups throughout Latin America. In 1996 he
personally ordered the shooting down of two unarmed civilian Brothers to
the Rescue planes in international waters, killing three U.S. citizens
and one Cuban-American resident.
The issue is not about negotiations or talking. These are not
sufficient. There has to be a willingness on the part of the Cuban
leadership to offer real concessions -- in the area of human rights and
political and economic openings as well as cooperation on anti-terrorism
and drug interdiction -- for the United States to change its policies.
No country gives away major policies without a substantial quid pro quo.
Only when Raúl is willing to deal, not only to the United States, but
more importantly to the Cuban people, then and only then we should sit
down and play.
Jaime Suchlicki is director of the Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. He is author of Cuba:
From Columbus to Castro.
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